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Pacers at Warriors

NBA · Sunday, Nov 9 · 7:30 PM CT · Chase Center · Final IND 83 – GS 114
← NBA / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND2120241883
GS23252739114
Team box
IND·GS
32-94
field goals
38-88
11-39
3-pointers
12-44
8-11
free throws
26-37
53
rebounds
50
21
assists
22
22
turnovers
10
40
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jimmy Butler IIIGS302197
Will RichardGS191531
Andrew NembhardIND301429
Quinten PostGS241482
Brandin PodziemskiGS321461
Moses MoodyGS231331

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +33
IND +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 33 · IND 1lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 44%, GS 56% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 2.9
Expected score
GS 115.9 – 113.0 IND
Expected total
228.9
PacersThe matchupWarriors
+128Our fair odds−128
113.0Expected points115.9
+0.35Power rating+0.37
110.3Points / game116.1
119.2Allowed / game116.7
40.1FG%46.3
29.93P%38.0
48.9Rebounds / game42.2
1−8Season record5−5
1−9Last 105−5
Aaron Nesmith · Bennedict Mathurin
Johnny Furphy · Kam Jones
Obi ToppinOutDe'Anthony Melton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · GS chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+12844%————
GSGolden State Warriors−12856%————
SpreadGS by 2.9
INDIndiana Pacers+2.9our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.9
Over228.9our total————
Under228.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 2.9 expected
Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%
← IND wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more48%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more33%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.9 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.531%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Golden State Warriors
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·GS
Nov 8, 2025 at DEN
last game
Nov 7, 2025 at DEN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 9, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · right forearm; contusionOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · recovery - splint; left knee surgery recovery - brace left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDPascal Siakam · rest - restOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDTaelon Peter · right groin; sorenessQuestionable
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSAl Horford · left foot; strainQuestionable
GSStephen Curry · general; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
IND·GS
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
110.3
points / game
116.1
119.2
points allowed / game
116.7
1−8
season record
5−5
1−4
home record
4−0
0−4
away record
1−5
L3
streak
L2
1−9
last 10
5−5
40.1
FG%
46.3
29.9
3P%
38.0
48.9
rebounds / game
42.2
23.3
assists / game
28.3
13.7
turnovers / game
16.7
47.1
points in paint / game
42.6

Rating Trend

IND · GS · 13 days
Indiana PacersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 2−7
Nov 1, 2025at INDIND 114 − 109
Jan 10, 2025at INDIND 108 − 96
Dec 23, 2024at GSIND 111 − 105
Mar 22, 2024at GSIND 123 − 111
Feb 8, 2024at INDGS 131 − 109
Dec 14, 2022at INDIND 125 − 119
Dec 5, 2022at GSIND 112 − 104
Jan 20, 2022at GSIND 121 − 117
Dec 13, 2021at INDGS 102 − 100

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Nov 8, 2025at DEN100 − 117L
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L
Nov 3, 2025vs MIL115 − 117L
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs ATL108 − 128L
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W