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Hawks at Pacers

NBA · Friday, Oct 31 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final ATL 128 – IND 108
← NBA / Oct 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL32313431128
IND29301732108
Team box
ATL·IND
51-94
field goals
35-99
10-30
3-pointers
13-47
16-20
free throws
25-33
55
rebounds
49
30
assists
23
10
turnovers
12
74
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3322138
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL322133
Dyson DanielsATL381896
Pascal SiakamIND301855
Jarace WalkerIND281733
Kristaps PorzingisATL231581

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +24
ATL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 12 · ATL 24lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 30%, IND 70% · Updated Oct 31, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 6.4
Expected score
IND 124.5 – 118.0 ATL
Expected total
242.5
HawksThe matchupPacers
+234Our fair odds−234
118.0Expected points124.5
−0.18Power rating+0.45
113.8Points / game113.2
120.4Allowed / game122.5
45.6FG%40.5
34.23P%32.2
40.0Rebounds / game50.0
2−3Season record0−4
6−4Last 102−8
Eli John Ndiaye · Nikola Djurisic
Trae YoungOutAndrew Nembhard · Bennedict Mathurin
Johnny Furphy · Kam Jones
Obi Toppin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · IND chance
Our model fair29.9%70.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+23430%————
INDIndiana Pacers−23470%————
SpreadIND by 6.4
ATLAtlanta Hawks+6.4our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.5
Over242.5our total————
Under242.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 6.4 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%
← ATL wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more57%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more42%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.5 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.567%
Total over 242.548%
Total over 252.531%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·IND
Oct 29, 2025 at BKN
last game
Oct 29, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; sprainOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAndrew Nembhard · left shoulder; strainOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left foot; bone bruiseOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress reactionOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
ATL·IND
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
113.8
points / game
113.2
120.4
points allowed / game
122.5
2−3
season record
0−4
0−2
home record
0−1
2−1
away record
0−3
W1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
2−8
45.6
FG%
40.5
34.2
3P%
32.2
40.0
rebounds / game
50.0
28.2
assists / game
22.5
12.6
turnovers / game
14.5
52.8
points in paint / game
45.5

Rating Trend

ATL · IND · 4 days
Atlanta HawksIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 6−4
Mar 8, 2025at ATLATL 120 − 118
Mar 6, 2025at ATLATL 124 − 118
Feb 1, 2025at INDIND 132 − 127
Apr 14, 2024at INDIND 157 − 115
Jan 12, 2024at ATLIND 126 − 108
Jan 5, 2024at INDIND 150 − 116
Nov 21, 2023at ATLIND 157 − 152
Mar 25, 2023at ATLATL 143 − 130
Jan 13, 2023at INDATL 113 − 111
Dec 27, 2022at INDIND 129 − 114

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 29, 2025at BKN117 − 112W
Oct 27, 2025at CHI123 − 128L
Oct 25, 2025vs OKC100 − 117L
Oct 24, 2025at ORL111 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025vs TOR118 − 138L
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W
Apr 11, 2025at PHI124 − 110W
Apr 10, 2025at BKN133 − 109W
Apr 8, 2025at ORL112 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs UTAH147 − 134W

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L
Jun 19, 2025vs OKC108 − 91W
Jun 16, 2025at OKC109 − 120L
Jun 13, 2025vs OKC104 − 111L
Jun 11, 2025vs OKC116 − 107W
Jun 8, 2025at OKC107 − 123L