bayesRatings

Hawks at Nets

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 29 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final ATL 117 – BKN 112
← NBA / Oct 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL34303023117
BKN27243229112
Team box
ATL·BKN
44-93
field goals
40-88
13-33
3-pointers
11-37
16-22
free throws
21-27
44
rebounds
47
33
assists
23
8
turnovers
16
50
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN333292
Jalen JohnsonATL292375
Cam ThomasBKN351923
Nic ClaxtonBKN2918111
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL321833
Luke KennardATL281712

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +17
ATL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 12 · ATL 17lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 60%, BKN 40% · Updated Oct 29, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 5.1
Expected score
ATL 117.3 – 112.2 BKN
Expected total
229.5
HawksThe matchupNets
−151Our fair odds+151
117.3Expected points112.2
−0.18Power rating−0.84
113.0Points / game114.2
122.5Allowed / game130.5
45.2FG%45.5
33.03P%36.8
39.0Rebounds / game36.8
1−3Season record0−4
5−5Last 101−9
Eli John Ndiaye · Nikola DjurisicOut (2 each)Haywood Highsmith · Ziaire Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BKN chance
Our model fair60.2%39.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−15160%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+15140%————
SpreadATL by 5.1
ATLAtlanta Hawks−5.1our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.5
Over229.5our total————
Under229.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 5.1 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byBKN wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more54%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more39%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.5 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GTrae Youngstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GCam Thomasstarted
GBen Sarafstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BKN
Oct 27, 2025 at CHI
last game
Oct 27, 2025 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 29, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLJalen Johnson · right ankle; sprainProbable
ATLZaccharie Risacher · right ankle; sprainProbable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNZiaire Williams · lower back/glute; contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
ATL·BKN
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.84
113.0
points / game
114.2
122.5
points allowed / game
130.5
1−3
season record
0−4
0−2
home record
0−1
1−1
away record
0−3
L2
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
1−9
45.2
FG%
45.5
33.0
3P%
36.8
39.0
rebounds / game
36.8
27.0
assists / game
24.8
13.8
turnovers / game
15.8
53.5
points in paint / game
41.0

Rating Trend

ATL · BKN · 2 days
Atlanta HawksBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 6−4
Apr 10, 2025at BKNATL 133 − 109
Mar 16, 2025at BKNBKN 122 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 116
Mar 2, 2024at BKNBKN 114 − 102
Feb 29, 2024at BKNBKN 124 − 97
Dec 6, 2023at ATLBKN 114 − 113
Nov 22, 2023at ATLATL 147 − 145
Mar 31, 2023at BKNBKN 124 − 107
Feb 26, 2023at ATLATL 129 − 127
Dec 28, 2022at ATLBKN 108 − 107

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 27, 2025at CHI123 − 128L
Oct 25, 2025vs OKC100 − 117L
Oct 24, 2025at ORL111 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025vs TOR118 − 138L
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W
Apr 11, 2025at PHI124 − 110W
Apr 10, 2025at BKN133 − 109W
Apr 8, 2025at ORL112 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs UTAH147 − 134W
Apr 5, 2025vs NY105 − 121L

BKN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Oct 27, 2025at HOU109 − 137L
Oct 26, 2025at SA107 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025vs CLE124 − 131L
Oct 22, 2025at CHA117 − 136L
Apr 13, 2025vs NY105 − 113L
Apr 11, 2025at MIN91 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs ATL109 − 133L
Apr 8, 2025vs NO119 − 114W
Apr 6, 2025vs TOR109 − 120L
Apr 3, 2025vs MIN90 − 105L