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Warriors at Nuggets

NBA · Friday, Nov 7 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final GS 104 – DEN 129
← NBA / Nov 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS21282827104
DEN32343330129
Team box
GS·DEN
40-95
field goals
46-82
12-41
3-pointers
16-33
12-15
free throws
21-25
46
rebounds
41
28
assists
34
12
turnovers
9
42
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN282699
Jamal MurrayDEN312348
Aaron GordonDEN241831
Draymond GreenGS261764
Jonas ValanciunasDEN161661
Jimmy Butler IIIGS311633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +28
GS +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 28 · GS 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 40%, DEN 60% · Updated Nov 7, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 3.9
Expected score
DEN 116.9 – 113.0 GS
Expected total
229.8
WarriorsThe matchupNuggets
+149Our fair odds−149
113.0Expected points116.9
+0.37Power rating+0.54
117.4Points / game124.6
115.3Allowed / game113.6
46.8FG%50.4
39.03P%33.7
41.8Rebounds / game47.9
5−4Season record5−2
5−5Last 106−4
De'Anthony Melton · Stephen CurryOutCurtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · DEN chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+14940%————
DENDenver Nuggets−14960%————
SpreadDEN by 3.9
GSGolden State Warriors+3.9our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.8
Over229.8our total————
Under229.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 3.9 expected
Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%
← GS wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more51%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more36%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.8 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·DEN
Nov 5, 2025 at SAC
last game
Nov 5, 2025 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSStephen Curry · general; illnessOut
GSAl Horford · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
GSJimmy Butler III · right low back; strainQuestionable
GSMoses Moody · right low back; strainQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENZeke Nnaji · right ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
GS·DEN
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
117.4
points / game
124.6
115.3
points allowed / game
113.6
5−4
season record
5−2
4−0
home record
4−0
1−4
away record
1−2
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
46.8
FG%
50.4
39.0
3P%
33.7
41.8
rebounds / game
47.9
28.3
assists / game
30.3
17.2
turnovers / game
14.4
42.7
points in paint / game
56.6

Rating Trend

GS · DEN · 11 days
Golden State WarriorsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 8−2
Oct 23, 2025at GSGS 137 − 131
Apr 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 104
Mar 17, 2025at GSDEN 114 − 105
Dec 3, 2024at DENDEN 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2024at GSDEN 119 − 103
Jan 4, 2024at GSDEN 130 − 127
Dec 25, 2023at DENDEN 120 − 114
Nov 8, 2023at DENDEN 108 − 105
Apr 2, 2023at DENDEN 112 − 110
Feb 2, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 117

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 5, 2025vs MIA122 − 112W
Nov 3, 2025vs SAC130 − 124W
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L
Oct 29, 2025vs NO122 − 88W
Oct 27, 2025at MIN127 − 114W
Oct 25, 2025vs PHX133 − 111W
Oct 23, 2025at GS131 − 137L
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W
May 13, 2025at OKC105 − 112L