bayesRatings

Kings at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Nov 3 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final SAC 124 – DEN 130
← NBA / Nov 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC30333031124
DEN39333226130
Team box
SAC·DEN
47-90
field goals
50-97
9-27
3-pointers
12-38
21-25
free throws
18-24
47
rebounds
40
27
assists
33
15
turnovers
8
56
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN3634714
Russell WestbrookSAC3726126
Christian BraunDEN312143
Aaron GordonDEN302071
DeMar DeRozanSAC361930
Dennis SchroderSAC351849

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +15
SAC +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 15 · SAC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 32%, DEN 68% · Updated Nov 3, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 6.1
Expected score
DEN 121.0 – 114.9 SAC
Expected total
235.8
KingsThe matchupNuggets
+210Our fair odds−210
114.9Expected points121.0
+0.00Power rating+0.52
115.0Points / game124.0
119.5Allowed / game111.8
48.2FG%51.6
36.53P%35.2
37.5Rebounds / game46.8
2−4Season record3−2
4−6Last 105−5
Isaiah Stevens · Keegan Murray
Malik MonkOut (3 each)Curtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · DEN chance
Our model fair32.3%67.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+21032%————
DENDenver Nuggets−21068%————
SpreadDEN by 6.1
SACSacramento Kings+6.1our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.8
Over235.8our total————
Under235.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 6.1 expected
Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%
← SAC wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more57%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more41%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

235.8 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GDennis Schroderstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·DEN
Nov 1, 2025 at MIL
last game
Oct 31, 2025 at POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 3, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left thumb; ucl injury recoveryOut
SACMalik Monk · personal reasonsOut
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENCameron Johnson · right shoulder; inflammationProbable
DENJamal Murray · left calf; tightnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
SAC·DEN
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.52
115.0
points / game
124.0
119.5
points allowed / game
111.8
2−4
season record
3−2
1−1
home record
2−0
1−3
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
48.2
FG%
51.6
36.5
3P%
35.2
37.5
rebounds / game
46.8
25.5
assists / game
29.2
13.2
turnovers / game
15.2
48.3
points in paint / game
56.0

Rating Trend

SAC · DEN · 7 days
Sacramento KingsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 6−4
Apr 9, 2025at SACDEN 124 − 116
Mar 5, 2025at DENDEN 116 − 110
Jan 23, 2025at DENDEN 132 − 123
Dec 16, 2024at SACDEN 130 − 129
Feb 28, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 96
Feb 14, 2024at DENSAC 102 − 98
Feb 9, 2024at SACSAC 135 − 106
Dec 2, 2023at SACSAC 123 − 117
Apr 9, 2023at DENDEN 109 − 95
Dec 28, 2022at SACSAC 127 − 126

SAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 1, 2025at MIL135 − 133W
Oct 29, 2025at CHI113 − 126L
Oct 28, 2025at OKC101 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025vs LAL120 − 127L
Oct 24, 2025vs UTAH105 − 104W
Oct 22, 2025at PHX116 − 120L
Apr 13, 2025vs PHX109 − 98W
Apr 11, 2025vs LAC100 − 101L
Apr 9, 2025vs DEN116 − 124L
Apr 7, 2025at DET127 − 117W

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L
Oct 29, 2025vs NO122 − 88W
Oct 27, 2025at MIN127 − 114W
Oct 25, 2025vs PHX133 − 111W
Oct 23, 2025at GS131 − 137L
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W
May 13, 2025at OKC105 − 112L
May 11, 2025vs OKC87 − 92L
May 9, 2025vs OKC113 − 104W