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Kings at Bucks

NBA · Saturday, Nov 1 · 4:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final SAC 135 – MIL 133
← NBA / Nov 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC36343827135
MIL47243131133
Team box
SAC·MIL
45-87
field goals
49-82
10-28
3-pointers
15-32
35-40
free throws
20-31
38
rebounds
37
30
assists
30
10
turnovers
11
60
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zach LaVineSAC393142
DeMar DeRozanSAC412943
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3226118
Domantas SabonisSAC3724136
Dennis SchroderSAC372457
Kyle KuzmaMIL222211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +15
SAC +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 15 · SAC 11lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 38%, MIL 62% · Updated Nov 1, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 4.3
Expected score
MIL 118.9 – 114.5 SAC
Expected total
233.4
KingsThe matchupBucks
+163Our fair odds−163
114.5Expected points118.9
+0.00Power rating+0.27
111.0Points / game121.8
116.8Allowed / game115.0
47.4FG%51.2
36.63P%39.4
37.4Rebounds / game41.2
1−4Season record4−1
4−6Last 105−5
Isaiah Stevens · Keegan Murray
Malik MonkOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Mark Sears · Pete Nance

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · MIL chance
Our model fair38.0%62.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+16338%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−16362%————
SpreadMIL by 4.3
SACSacramento Kings+4.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.4
Over233.4our total————
Under233.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 4.3 expected
Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%
← SAC wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more52%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more37%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.4 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GDennis Schroderstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
CDylan Cardwellstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·MIL
Oct 29, 2025 at CHI
last game
Oct 30, 2025 vs GS
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 1, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left thumb; ucl injury recoveryOut
SACMalik Monk · personal reasonsOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus tearOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
SAC·MIL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
111.0
points / game
121.8
116.8
points allowed / game
115.0
1−4
season record
4−1
1−1
home record
3−0
0−3
away record
1−1
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
47.4
FG%
51.2
36.6
3P%
39.4
37.4
rebounds / game
41.2
24.6
assists / game
26.6
13.8
turnovers / game
14.8
46.0
points in paint / game
52.4

Rating Trend

SAC · MIL · 5 days
Sacramento KingsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIL 7−1
Mar 22, 2025at SACMIL 114 − 108
Jan 14, 2025at MILMIL 130 − 115
Mar 12, 2024at SACSAC 129 − 94
Jan 14, 2024at MILMIL 143 − 142
Mar 13, 2023at SACMIL 133 − 124
Dec 7, 2022at MILMIL 126 − 113
Mar 16, 2022at SACMIL 135 − 126
Jan 22, 2022at MILMIL 133 − 127

SAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 29, 2025at CHI113 − 126L
Oct 28, 2025at OKC101 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025vs LAL120 − 127L
Oct 24, 2025vs UTAH105 − 104W
Oct 22, 2025at PHX116 − 120L
Apr 13, 2025vs PHX109 − 98W
Apr 11, 2025vs LAC100 − 101L
Apr 9, 2025vs DEN116 − 124L
Apr 7, 2025at DET127 − 117W
Apr 6, 2025at CLE120 − 113W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L
Apr 27, 2025vs IND103 − 129L
Apr 25, 2025vs IND117 − 101W
Apr 22, 2025at IND115 − 123L
Apr 19, 2025at IND98 − 117L