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Warriors at Kings

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final GS 116 – SAC 121
← NBA / Nov 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS32302331116
SAC25323529121
Team box
GS·SAC
40-89
field goals
41-83
17-43
3-pointers
11-23
19-23
free throws
28-33
44
rebounds
47
28
assists
27
19
turnovers
16
40
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Will RichardGS353073
Moses MoodyGS392833
DeMar DeRozanSAC362522
Jonathan KumingaGS362493
Russell WestbrookSAC35231610
Malik MonkSAC252142

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +13
GS +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 11 · GS 13lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 53%, SAC 47% · Updated Nov 5, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 1.0
Expected score
GS 115.3 – 114.3 SAC
Expected total
229.6
WarriorsThe matchupKings
−114Our fair odds+114
115.3Expected points114.3
+0.37Power rating−0.00
117.6Points / game116.3
114.6Allowed / game121.0
47.0FG%48.7
38.93P%36.0
41.5Rebounds / game38.9
5−3Season record2−5
5−5Last 103−7
Alex Toohey · De'Anthony Melton
Jimmy Butler III · Stephen CurryOutDaeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Isaiah Stevens · Keegan Murray
Zach LaVine

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · SAC chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−11453%————
SACSacramento Kings+11447%————
SpreadGS by 1.0
GSGolden State Warriors−1our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.6
Over229.6our total————
Under229.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 1.0 expected
Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%
← GS wins bySAC wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more42%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more29%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.6 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GDennis Schroderstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FDrew Eubanksstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·SAC
Nov 4, 2025 vs PHX
last game
Nov 3, 2025 at DEN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; injury recoveryOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right low back; strainOut
GSStephen Curry · general; illnessOut
GSBrandin Podziemski · left wrist; sorenessQuestionable
GSDraymond Green · right rib; contusionQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left ribcage; contusionOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left thumb; ucl injury recoveryOut
SACZach LaVine · low back; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
GS·SAC
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
117.6
points / game
116.3
114.6
points allowed / game
121.0
5−3
season record
2−5
4−0
home record
1−1
1−3
away record
1−4
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
47.0
FG%
48.7
38.9
3P%
36.0
41.5
rebounds / game
38.9
28.4
assists / game
25.7
17.0
turnovers / game
13.4
43.0
points in paint / game
49.4

Rating Trend

GS · SAC · 9 days
Golden State WarriorsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 5−5
Mar 13, 2025at GSGS 130 − 104
Feb 21, 2025at SACGS 132 − 108
Jan 22, 2025at SACSAC 123 − 117
Jan 5, 2025at GSSAC 129 − 99
Jan 25, 2024at GSSAC 134 − 133
Nov 28, 2023at SACSAC 124 − 123
Nov 1, 2023at GSGS 102 − 101
Oct 27, 2023at SACGS 122 − 114
Apr 30, 2023at SACGS 120 − 100post
Apr 28, 2023at GSSAC 118 − 99post

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L

SAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 3, 2025at DEN124 − 130L
Nov 1, 2025at MIL135 − 133W
Oct 29, 2025at CHI113 − 126L
Oct 28, 2025at OKC101 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025vs LAL120 − 127L
Oct 24, 2025vs UTAH105 − 104W
Oct 22, 2025at PHX116 − 120L
Apr 13, 2025vs PHX109 − 98W
Apr 11, 2025vs LAC100 − 101L
Apr 9, 2025vs DEN116 − 124L