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Suns at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final PHX 107 – GS 118
← NBA / Nov 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX19303424107
GS33352426118
Team box
PHX·GS
40-91
field goals
41-83
12-33
3-pointers
19-42
15-16
free throws
17-20
46
rebounds
39
25
assists
33
17
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX393834
Stephen CurryGS342843
Moses MoodyGS342452
Mark WilliamsPHX2716164
Grayson AllenPHX351645
Quinten PostGS271473

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +25
PHX +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 25 · PHX 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 32%, GS 68% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 6.9
Expected score
GS 117.5 – 110.5 PHX
Expected total
228.0
SunsThe matchupWarriors
+217Our fair odds−217
110.5Expected points117.5
−0.19Power rating+0.37
118.3Points / game117.6
120.6Allowed / game115.7
46.6FG%46.7
38.03P%38.0
42.4Rebounds / game41.9
3−4Season record4−3
4−6Last 104−6
Dillon Brooks · Jalen GreenOutAl Horford · Alex Toohey
De'Anthony Melton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · GS chance
Our model fair31.5%68.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+21732%————
GSGolden State Warriors−21768%————
SpreadGS by 6.9
PHXPhoenix Suns+6.9our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our total————
Under228.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 6.9 expected
Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%
← PHX wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more59%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more43%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.548%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GDevin Bookerstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FRyan Dunnstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·GS
Nov 2, 2025 vs SA
last game
Nov 1, 2025 at IND
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 4, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · core muscle; strainOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; injury recoveryOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right low back; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
PHX·GS
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
118.3
points / game
117.6
120.6
points allowed / game
115.7
3−4
season record
4−3
3−1
home record
3−0
0−3
away record
1−3
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
46.6
FG%
46.7
38.0
3P%
38.0
42.4
rebounds / game
41.9
28.0
assists / game
27.7
17.3
turnovers / game
17.1
43.4
points in paint / game
43.1

Rating Trend

PHX · GS · 8 days
Phoenix SunsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 4−6
Apr 8, 2025at PHXGS 133 − 95
Jan 31, 2025at GSPHX 130 − 105
Dec 28, 2024at GSGS 109 − 105
Nov 30, 2024at PHXPHX 113 − 105
Feb 10, 2024at GSGS 113 − 112
Dec 12, 2023at PHXPHX 119 − 116
Nov 22, 2023at PHXPHX 123 − 115
Oct 24, 2023at GSPHX 108 − 104
Mar 13, 2023at GSGS 123 − 112
Jan 10, 2023at GSPHX 125 − 113

PHX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Nov 2, 2025vs SA130 − 118W
Oct 31, 2025vs UTAH118 − 96W
Oct 29, 2025vs MEM113 − 114L
Oct 27, 2025at UTAH134 − 138L
Oct 25, 2025at DEN111 − 133L
Oct 24, 2025at LAC102 − 129L
Oct 22, 2025vs SAC120 − 116W
Apr 13, 2025at SAC98 − 109L
Apr 11, 2025vs SA117 − 98W
Apr 9, 2025vs OKC112 − 125L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L
May 10, 2025vs MIN97 − 102L