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Heat at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 5 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MIA 112 – DEN 122
← NBA / Nov 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA33272626112
DEN36323321122
Team box
MIA·DEN
38-86
field goals
43-101
14-41
3-pointers
11-40
22-25
free throws
25-28
38
rebounds
61
26
assists
33
15
turnovers
17
42
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN37331516
Aaron GordonDEN312461
Norman PowellMIA312320
Andrew WigginsMIA322245
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA262132
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN241830

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +17
MIA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 17 · MIA 7lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 31%, DEN 69% · Updated Nov 5, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 6.7
Expected score
DEN 117.2 – 110.5 MIA
Expected total
227.7
HeatThe matchupNuggets
+219Our fair odds−219
110.5Expected points117.2
−0.03Power rating+0.54
123.9Points / game125.0
117.0Allowed / game113.8
50.0FG%51.7
39.13P%34.7
44.4Rebounds / game45.7
4−3Season record4−2
4−6Last 105−5
Jahmir Young · Myron Gardner
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOutCurtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · DEN chance
Our model fair31.3%68.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+21931%————
DENDenver Nuggets−21969%————
SpreadDEN by 6.7
MIAMiami Heat+6.7our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−6.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.7
Over227.7our total————
Under227.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 6.7 expected
Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: <1%Miami Heat by 21 points: <1%Miami Heat by 20 points: <1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 1%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%
← MIA wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more58%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more43%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.7 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·DEN
Nov 3, 2025 at LAC
last game
Nov 3, 2025 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENJamal Murray · left calf; tightnessProbable
DENJulian Strawther · low back; painProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIA·DEN
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
123.9
points / game
125.0
117.0
points allowed / game
113.8
4−3
season record
4−2
2−0
home record
3−0
2−3
away record
1−2
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
50.0
FG%
51.7
39.1
3P%
34.7
44.4
rebounds / game
45.7
30.0
assists / game
29.8
15.9
turnovers / game
14.0
56.9
points in paint / game
55.7

Rating Trend

MIA · DEN · 9 days
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 9−1
Jan 17, 2025at MIADEN 133 − 113
Nov 8, 2024at DENDEN 135 − 122
Mar 13, 2024at MIADEN 100 − 88
Feb 29, 2024at DENDEN 103 − 97
Jun 12, 2023at DENDEN 94 − 89post
Jun 9, 2023at MIADEN 108 − 95post
Jun 7, 2023at MIADEN 109 − 94post
Jun 4, 2023at DENMIA 111 − 108post
Jun 1, 2023at DENDEN 104 − 93post
Feb 13, 2023at MIADEN 112 − 108

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 3, 2025at LAC120 − 119W
Nov 2, 2025at LAL120 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025at SA101 − 107L
Oct 28, 2025vs CHA144 − 117W
Oct 26, 2025vs NY115 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 3, 2025vs SAC130 − 124W
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L
Oct 29, 2025vs NO122 − 88W
Oct 27, 2025at MIN127 − 114W
Oct 25, 2025vs PHX133 − 111W
Oct 23, 2025at GS131 − 137L
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W
May 13, 2025at OKC105 − 112L
May 11, 2025vs OKC87 − 92L