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Heat at Clippers

NBA · Monday, Nov 3 · 9:30 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final MIA 120 – LAC 119
← NBA / Nov 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA32343717120
LAC30412424119
Team box
MIA·LAC
45-83
field goals
44-88
12-25
3-pointers
17-41
18-24
free throws
14-19
37
rebounds
44
33
assists
25
16
turnovers
21
58
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
James HardenLAC392978
Kawhi LeonardLAC372744
Bam AdebayoMIA3025104
Norman PowellMIA282122
Andrew WigginsMIA321722
Kel'el WareMIA181650

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +13
MIA +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 11 · MIA 13lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 33%, LAC 67% · Updated Nov 3, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 7.3
Expected score
LAC 112.0 – 104.6 MIA
Expected total
216.6
HeatThe matchupClippers
+203Our fair odds−203
104.6Expected points112.0
−0.04Power rating+0.45
124.5Points / game111.2
116.7Allowed / game112.0
49.3FG%49.4
37.73P%36.2
45.7Rebounds / game42.6
3−3Season record3−2
3−7Last 105−5
Kasparas Jakucionis · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav GoldinOutJordan Miller · Kobe Sanders

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LAC chance
Our model fair33.0%67.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+20333%————
LACLA Clippers−20367%————
SpreadLAC by 7.3
MIAMiami Heat+7.3our margin————
LACLA Clippers−7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.6
Over216.6our total————
Under216.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 7.3 expected
Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: <1%Miami Heat by 21 points: <1%Miami Heat by 20 points: <1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 1%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 13 points: 3%LA Clippers by 14 points: 3%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 19 points: 2%LA Clippers by 20 points: 2%LA Clippers by 21 points: 2%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 32 points: 1%LA Clippers by 33 points: 1%LA Clippers by 34 points: 1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 46 points: <1%LA Clippers by 47 points: <1%LA Clippers by 48 points: <1%LA Clippers by 49 points: <1%LA Clippers by 50 points: <1%
← MIA wins byLAC wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more60%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more44%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.6 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.570%
Total over 216.550%
Total over 226.530%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GBradley Bealstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CIvica Zubacstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LAC
Nov 2, 2025 at LAL
last game
Oct 31, 2025 vs NO
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 3, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainQuestionable
LA Clippers
LACJordan Miller · left hamstring; strainOut
LACKobe Sanders · right knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIA·LAC
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
124.5
points / game
111.2
116.7
points allowed / game
112.0
3−3
season record
3−2
2−0
home record
3−0
1−3
away record
0−2
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
49.3
FG%
49.4
37.7
3P%
36.2
45.7
rebounds / game
42.6
29.5
assists / game
24.8
15.8
turnovers / game
17.2
56.7
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

MIA · LAC · 7 days
Miami HeatLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAC 5−3
Mar 12, 2025at MIALAC 119 − 104
Jan 13, 2025at LACLAC 109 − 98
Feb 4, 2024at MIALAC 103 − 95
Jan 1, 2024at LACLAC 121 − 104
Jan 2, 2023at LACMIA 110 − 100
Dec 8, 2022at MIAMIA 115 − 110
Jan 28, 2022at MIAMIA 121 − 114
Nov 11, 2021at LACLAC 112 − 109

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 2, 2025at LAL120 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025at SA101 − 107L
Oct 28, 2025vs CHA144 − 117W
Oct 26, 2025vs NY115 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L
Apr 20, 2025at CLE100 − 121L

LAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 31, 2025vs NO126 − 124W
Oct 28, 2025at GS79 − 98L
Oct 26, 2025vs POR114 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025vs PHX129 − 102W
Oct 22, 2025at UTAH108 − 129L
May 3, 2025at DEN101 − 120L
May 1, 2025vs DEN111 − 105W
Apr 29, 2025at DEN115 − 131L
Apr 26, 2025vs DEN99 − 101L
Apr 24, 2025vs DEN117 − 83W