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Bucks at Pacers

NBA · Monday, Nov 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final MIL 117 – IND 115
← NBA / Nov 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL31252833117
IND22312438115
Team box
MIL·IND
42-88
field goals
39-90
20-47
3-pointers
8-33
13-22
free throws
29-38
43
rebounds
45
24
assists
24
18
turnovers
12
38
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3233135
Pascal SiakamIND383258
Isaiah JacksonIND2921101
Jarace WalkerIND381885
Aaron NesmithIND341771
Kyle KuzmaMIL161550

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +12
MIL +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 5 · MIL 12lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 40%, IND 60% · Updated Nov 3, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 3.2
Expected score
IND 119.2 – 116.0 MIL
Expected total
235.2
BucksThe matchupPacers
+151Our fair odds−151
116.0Expected points119.2
+0.27Power rating+0.45
123.7Points / game112.5
118.3Allowed / game121.2
52.7FG%40.3
40.73P%31.2
40.5Rebounds / game49.3
4−2Season record1−5
5−5Last 102−8
Alex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Pete NanceOutAndrew Nembhard · Bennedict Mathurin
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
T.J. McConnell

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · IND chance
Our model fair39.9%60.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+15140%————
INDIndiana Pacers−15160%————
SpreadIND by 3.2
MILMilwaukee Bucks+3.2our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.2
Over235.2our total————
Under235.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 3.2 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%
← MIL wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more49%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more34%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.2 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·IND
Nov 1, 2025 vs SAC
last game
Nov 1, 2025 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 2, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus tearOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; patellar tendinopathyProbable
Indiana Pacers
INDAndrew Nembhard · left shoulder; strainOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDRayJ Dennis · low back; sprainQuestionable
INDJohnny Furphy · left foot; bone bruiseProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIL·IND
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
123.7
points / game
112.5
118.3
points allowed / game
121.2
4−2
season record
1−5
3−1
home record
1−2
1−1
away record
0−3
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
52.7
FG%
40.3
40.7
3P%
31.2
40.5
rebounds / game
49.3
27.2
assists / game
22.8
14.2
turnovers / game
13.7
52.0
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

MIL · IND · 7 days
Milwaukee BucksIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 6−4
Apr 29, 2025at INDIND 119 − 118post
Apr 27, 2025at MILIND 129 − 103post
Apr 25, 2025at MILMIL 117 − 101post
Apr 22, 2025at INDIND 123 − 115post
Apr 19, 2025at INDIND 117 − 98post
Mar 15, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 119
Mar 11, 2025at INDIND 115 − 114
Dec 31, 2024at INDMIL 120 − 112
Nov 22, 2024at MILMIL 129 − 117
May 2, 2024at INDIND 120 − 98post

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L
Apr 27, 2025vs IND103 − 129L
Apr 25, 2025vs IND117 − 101W
Apr 22, 2025at IND115 − 123L

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs ATL108 − 128L
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L
Jun 19, 2025vs OKC108 − 91W
Jun 16, 2025at OKC109 − 120L
Jun 13, 2025vs OKC104 − 111L