bayesRatings

Pacers at Nuggets

NBA · Saturday, Nov 8 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final IND 100 – DEN 117
← NBA / Nov 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND18293518100
DEN31253922117
Team box
IND·DEN
33-93
field goals
45-93
8-36
3-pointers
8-27
26-34
free throws
19-23
43
rebounds
55
20
assists
32
11
turnovers
18
42
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN32321414
Aaron NesmithIND262510
Andrew NembhardIND332206
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN241734
Peyton WatsonDEN271671
Pascal SiakamIND331465

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +21
IND +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 21 · IND 4lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 40%, DEN 60% · Updated Nov 8, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 4.1
Expected score
DEN 120.6 – 116.5 IND
Expected total
237.1
PacersThe matchupNuggets
+151Our fair odds−151
116.5Expected points120.6
+0.35Power rating+0.54
111.6Points / game125.1
119.5Allowed / game112.4
40.8FG%51.1
30.93P%35.5
49.6Rebounds / game47.0
1−7Season record6−2
2−8Last 107−3
Bennedict Mathurin · Johnny Furphy
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Quenton JacksonOutCurtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · DEN chance
Our model fair39.8%60.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+15140%————
DENDenver Nuggets−15160%————
SpreadDEN by 4.1
INDIndiana Pacers+4.1our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.1
Over237.1our total————
Under237.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.1 expected
Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%
← IND wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more51%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more36%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.1 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJalen Pickettstarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·DEN
Nov 5, 2025 vs BKN
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs GS
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 8, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · low back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · left shoulder; strainQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · right groin; sorenessQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENAaron Gordon · left hamstring; injury managementQuestionable
DENJamal Murray · left calf; tightnessQuestionable
DENZeke Nnaji · right ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
IND·DEN
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
111.6
points / game
125.1
119.5
points allowed / game
112.4
1−7
season record
6−2
1−4
home record
5−0
0−3
away record
1−2
L2
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
7−3
40.8
FG%
51.1
30.9
3P%
35.5
49.6
rebounds / game
47.0
23.8
assists / game
30.8
14.0
turnovers / game
13.8
47.8
points in paint / game
56.0

Rating Trend

IND · DEN · 12 days
Indiana PacersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DEN 7−1
Apr 6, 2025at DENIND 125 − 120
Feb 24, 2025at INDDEN 125 − 116
Jan 23, 2024at INDDEN 114 − 109
Jan 14, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 109
Jan 20, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 111
Nov 9, 2022at INDDEN 122 − 119
Mar 30, 2022at INDDEN 125 − 118
Nov 10, 2021at DENDEN 101 − 98

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L
Nov 3, 2025vs MIL115 − 117L
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs ATL108 − 128L
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L
Jun 19, 2025vs OKC108 − 91W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 7, 2025vs GS129 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs MIA122 − 112W
Nov 3, 2025vs SAC130 − 124W
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L
Oct 29, 2025vs NO122 − 88W
Oct 27, 2025at MIN127 − 114W
Oct 25, 2025vs PHX133 − 111W
Oct 23, 2025at GS131 − 137L
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W