bayesRatings

Warriors at Spurs

NBA · Friday, Nov 14 · 8:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final GS 109 – SA 108
← NBA / Nov 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS18293032109
SA20253429108
Team box
GS·SA
38-90
field goals
39-85
17-45
3-pointers
14-38
16-18
free throws
16-19
39
rebounds
47
18
assists
28
15
turnovers
21
32
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS364942
Victor WembanyamaSA3826124
De'Aaron FoxSA3324410
Jimmy Butler IIIGS352181
Julian ChampagnieSA231420
Stephon CastleSA361396

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +10
GS +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 10 · GS 8lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 56%, SA 44% · Updated Nov 14, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 1.7
Expected score
GS 115.0 – 113.3 SA
Expected total
228.3
WarriorsThe matchupSpurs
−125Our fair odds+125
115.0Expected points113.3
+0.37Power rating−0.12
115.5Points / game119.4
115.1Allowed / game112.5
45.6FG%49.9
37.03P%36.4
41.8Rebounds / game45.7
7−6Season record8−3
5−5Last 107−3
De'Anthony Melton · Jonathan KumingaOutDavid Jones Garcia · Dylan Harper
Riley Minix

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · SA chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−12556%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+12544%————
SpreadGS by 1.7
GSGolden State Warriors−1.7our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.3
Over228.3our total————
Under228.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 1.7 expected
Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%
← GS wins bySA wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more44%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more30%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.3 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·SA
Nov 12, 2025 at SA
last game
Nov 12, 2025 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral knee; patellar tendonitisOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAJulian Champagnie · right hip; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
GS·SA
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
115.5
points / game
119.4
115.1
points allowed / game
112.5
7−6
season record
8−3
5−0
home record
5−1
2−6
away record
3−2
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
45.6
FG%
49.9
37.0
3P%
36.4
41.8
rebounds / game
45.7
27.5
assists / game
26.2
16.5
turnovers / game
16.5
40.6
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

GS · SA · 18 days
Golden State WarriorsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 3−7
Nov 12, 2025at SAGS 125 − 120
Apr 9, 2025at GSSA 114 − 111
Mar 30, 2025at SAGS 148 − 106
Nov 23, 2024at SASA 104 − 94
Mar 31, 2024at SAGS 117 − 113
Mar 11, 2024at SAGS 112 − 102
Mar 9, 2024at GSSA 126 − 113
Nov 24, 2023at GSGS 118 − 112
Mar 31, 2023at GSGS 130 − 115
Jan 13, 2023at SAGS 144 − 113

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 12, 2025vs GS120 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at CHI121 − 117W
Nov 8, 2025vs NO126 − 119W
Nov 7, 2025vs HOU121 − 110W
Nov 5, 2025at LAL116 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025vs MIA107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR121 − 103W
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W