bayesRatings

Spurs at Bulls

NBA · Monday, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final SA 121 – CHI 117
← NBA / Nov 10, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA34292632121
CHI26383419117
Team box
SA·CHI
44-86
field goals
41-93
10-33
3-pointers
16-38
23-27
free throws
19-23
47
rebounds
45
30
assists
29
15
turnovers
13
58
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3638125
Kevin HuerterCHI332355
De'Aaron FoxSA372145
Tre JonesCHI332077
Ayo DosunmuCHI332025
Stephon CastleSA3219511

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +13
SA +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 13 · SA 12lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 38%, CHI 62% · Updated Nov 10, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 3.5
Expected score
CHI 121.0 – 117.5 SA
Expected total
238.6
SpursThe matchupBulls
+161Our fair odds−161
117.5Expected points121.0
−0.20Power rating+0.06
119.1Points / game119.4
110.7Allowed / game118.1
49.9FG%49.0
37.13P%39.7
45.2Rebounds / game46.9
7−2Season record6−3
8−2Last 107−3
Dylan Harper · Harrison Ingram
Riley MinixOutCoby White · Zach Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · CHI chance
Our model fair38.2%61.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+16138%————
CHIChicago Bulls−16162%————
SpreadCHI by 3.5
SASan Antonio Spurs+3.5our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls−3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.6
Over238.6our total————
Under238.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 3.5 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%
← SA wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more50%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more35%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.6 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Chicago Bulls
GKevin Huerterstarted
GTre Jonesstarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·CHI
Nov 8, 2025 vs NO
last game
Nov 8, 2025 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 10, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sprain/right shoulder sprainQuestionable
Chicago Bulls
CHICoby White · right calf; strainOut
CHIZach Collins · left scaphoid; fractureOut
CHIJosh Giddey · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
CHIPatrick Williams · left finger; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
SA·CHI
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
119.1
points / game
119.4
110.7
points allowed / game
118.1
7−2
season record
6−3
5−0
home record
5−0
2−2
away record
1−3
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
7−3
49.9
FG%
49.0
37.1
3P%
39.7
45.2
rebounds / game
46.9
25.3
assists / game
29.8
16.3
turnovers / game
15.7
51.3
points in paint / game
57.1

Rating Trend

SA · CHI · 14 days
San Antonio SpursChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHI 7−2
Jan 6, 2025at CHICHI 114 − 110
Dec 5, 2024at SACHI 139 − 124
Jan 13, 2024at SACHI 122 − 116
Dec 21, 2023at CHICHI 114 − 95
Dec 8, 2023at SACHI 121 − 112
Feb 6, 2023at CHICHI 128 − 104
Oct 28, 2022at SASA 129 − 124
Feb 14, 2022at CHICHI 120 − 109
Jan 28, 2022at SASA 131 − 122

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Nov 8, 2025vs NO126 − 119W
Nov 7, 2025vs HOU121 − 110W
Nov 5, 2025at LAL116 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025vs MIA107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR121 − 103W
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W

CHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Nov 8, 2025at CLE122 − 128L
Nov 7, 2025at MIL110 − 126L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHI113 − 111W
Nov 2, 2025at NY116 − 128L
Oct 31, 2025vs NY135 − 125W
Oct 29, 2025vs SAC126 − 113W
Oct 27, 2025vs ATL128 − 123W
Oct 25, 2025at ORL110 − 98W
Oct 22, 2025vs DET115 − 111W
Apr 13, 2025at PHI122 − 102W