bayesRatings

Bulls at Bucks

NBA · Friday, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final CHI 110 – MIL 126
← NBA / Nov 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI25272830110
MIL23303241126
Team box
CHI·MIL
44-90
field goals
48-103
10-33
3-pointers
16-39
12-16
free throws
14-18
45
rebounds
53
34
assists
27
14
turnovers
11
62
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3741159
Myles TurnerMIL312380
Matas BuzelisCHI362083
Ryan RollinsMIL312064
Tre JonesCHI291754
Josh GiddeyCHI3516714

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +17
CHI +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 17 · CHI 8lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 38%, MIL 62% · Updated Nov 7, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 4.3
Expected score
MIL 121.5 – 117.1 CHI
Expected total
238.6
BullsThe matchupBucks
+162Our fair odds−162
117.1Expected points121.5
+0.06Power rating+0.31
120.4Points / game119.9
115.6Allowed / game119.1
49.6FG%50.9
40.33P%39.5
46.9Rebounds / game40.9
6−1Season record5−3
9−1Last 105−5
Coby White · Zach CollinsOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair38.2%61.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+16238%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−16262%————
SpreadMIL by 4.3
CHIChicago Bulls+4.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.6
Over238.6our total————
Under238.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 4.3 expected
Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%
← CHI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more52%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more37%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.6 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·MIL
Nov 4, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Nov 4, 2025 at TOR
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHICoby White · right calf; strainOut
CHIZach Collins · left scaphoid; fractureOut
CHIAyo Dosunmu · left quadricep; contusionQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus surgeryOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CHI·MIL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
120.4
points / game
119.9
115.6
points allowed / game
119.1
6−1
season record
5−3
5−0
home record
3−1
1−1
away record
2−2
W1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
5−5
49.6
FG%
50.9
40.3
3P%
39.5
46.9
rebounds / game
40.9
29.6
assists / game
26.6
16.1
turnovers / game
14.8
57.7
points in paint / game
49.5

Rating Trend

CHI · MIL · 11 days
Chicago BullsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Dec 28, 2024at CHICHI 116 − 111
Dec 23, 2024at CHIMIL 112 − 91
Nov 20, 2024at MILMIL 122 − 106
Oct 25, 2024at MILCHI 133 − 122
Mar 1, 2024at CHIMIL 113 − 97
Dec 11, 2023at MILMIL 133 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at CHICHI 120 − 113
Nov 13, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 109
Apr 5, 2023at MILMIL 105 − 92
Feb 16, 2023at CHIMIL 112 − 100

CHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Nov 4, 2025vs PHI113 − 111W
Nov 2, 2025at NY116 − 128L
Oct 31, 2025vs NY135 − 125W
Oct 29, 2025vs SAC126 − 113W
Oct 27, 2025vs ATL128 − 123W
Oct 25, 2025at ORL110 − 98W
Oct 22, 2025vs DET115 − 111W
Apr 13, 2025at PHI122 − 102W
Apr 11, 2025vs WSH119 − 89W
Apr 9, 2025vs MIA119 − 111W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 4, 2025at TOR100 − 128L
Nov 3, 2025at IND117 − 115W
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L
Apr 27, 2025vs IND103 − 129L