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Bucks at Raptors

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final MIL 100 – TOR 128
← NBA / Nov 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL29252620100
TOR39343223128
Team box
MIL·TOR
37-86
field goals
44-91
11-38
3-pointers
17-38
15-21
free throws
23-29
41
rebounds
50
26
assists
33
15
turnovers
10
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
RJ BarrettTOR312384
Scottie BarnesTOR282336
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL242283
Kyle KuzmaMIL271830
Immanuel QuickleyTOR261567
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR231571

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +32
MIL +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 32 · MIL 3lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 63%, TOR 37% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 4.9
Expected score
MIL 118.4 – 113.5 TOR
Expected total
231.9
BucksThe matchupRaptors
−168Our fair odds+168
118.4Expected points113.5
+0.31Power rating−0.45
122.7Points / game119.4
117.9Allowed / game120.6
52.0FG%50.4
41.03P%38.1
40.9Rebounds / game39.6
5−2Season record3−4
6−4Last 104−6
Alex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Pete NanceOut (3 each)A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair62.7%37.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−16863%————
TORToronto Raptors+16837%————
SpreadMIL by 4.9
MILMilwaukee Bucks−4.9our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.9
Over231.9our total————
Under231.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 4.9 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byTOR wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more54%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more38%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.9 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.531%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·TOR
Nov 3, 2025 at IND
last game
Nov 2, 2025 vs MEM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 4, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus tearOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; patellar tendinopathyProbable
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
MIL·TOR
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
122.7
points / game
119.4
117.9
points allowed / game
120.6
5−2
season record
3−4
3−1
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
2−2
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
52.0
FG%
50.4
41.0
3P%
38.1
40.9
rebounds / game
39.6
26.7
assists / game
30.1
14.7
turnovers / game
15.7
50.0
points in paint / game
54.3

Rating Trend

MIL · TOR · 8 days
Milwaukee BucksToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Oct 24, 2025at TORMIL 122 − 116
Jan 17, 2025at MILMIL 130 − 112
Jan 6, 2025at TORMIL 128 − 104
Nov 12, 2024at MILMIL 99 − 85
Apr 5, 2024at MILTOR 117 − 111
Nov 15, 2023at TORMIL 128 − 112
Nov 1, 2023at TORTOR 130 − 111
Apr 9, 2023at TORTOR 121 − 105
Mar 19, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 111
Jan 17, 2023at MILMIL 130 − 122

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 3, 2025at IND117 − 115W
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L
Apr 27, 2025vs IND103 − 129L
Apr 25, 2025vs IND117 − 101W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Nov 2, 2025vs MEM117 − 104W
Oct 31, 2025at CLE112 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025vs HOU121 − 139L
Oct 27, 2025at SA103 − 121L
Oct 26, 2025at DAL129 − 139L
Oct 24, 2025vs MIL116 − 122L
Oct 22, 2025at ATL138 − 118W
Apr 13, 2025at SA118 − 125L
Apr 11, 2025at DAL102 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025vs CHA126 − 96W