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Warriors at Thunder

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final GS 102 – OKC 126
← NBA / Nov 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS25192830102
OKC34294419126
Team box
GS·OKC
33-74
field goals
42-83
13-35
3-pointers
16-36
23-29
free throws
26-31
32
rebounds
40
23
assists
29
21
turnovers
20
38
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC2828511
Chet HolmgrenOKC2523112
Isaiah JoeOKC291811
Ajay MitchellOKC311732
Jonathan KumingaGS241334
Jaylin WilliamsOKC301265

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +36
GS +36
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 36 · GS 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 22%, OKC 78% · Updated Nov 11, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 12.5
Expected score
OKC 118.3 – 105.8 GS
Expected total
224.1
WarriorsThe matchupThunder
+346Our fair odds−346
105.8Expected points118.3
+0.37Power rating+1.37
115.9Points / game122.4
113.6Allowed / game108.8
46.0FG%47.3
37.03P%33.2
42.9Rebounds / game48.1
6−5Season record10−1
5−5Last 109−1
Al Horford · De'Anthony MeltonOutAaron Wiggins · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Luguentz Dort
Nikola Topic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · OKC chance
Our model fair22.4%77.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+34622%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−34678%————
SpreadOKC by 12.5
GSGolden State Warriors+12.5our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−12.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.1
Over224.1our total————
Under224.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 12.5 expected
Golden State Warriors by 53 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 52 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 51 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← GS wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more72%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more58%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more43%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·OKC
Nov 9, 2025 vs IND
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 11, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right upper trap; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
GS·OKC
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+1.37
115.9
points / game
122.4
113.6
points allowed / game
108.8
6−5
season record
10−1
5−0
home record
4−0
1−5
away record
6−1
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
9−1
46.0
FG%
47.3
37.0
3P%
33.2
42.9
rebounds / game
48.1
27.7
assists / game
24.9
16.1
turnovers / game
11.7
42.5
points in paint / game
52.2

Rating Trend

GS · OKC · 15 days
Golden State WarriorsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 5−5
Jan 29, 2025at GSGS 116 − 109
Nov 27, 2024at GSOKC 105 − 101
Nov 10, 2024at OKCGS 127 − 116
Dec 8, 2023at OKCOKC 138 − 136
Nov 18, 2023at GSOKC 130 − 123
Nov 16, 2023at GSOKC 128 − 109
Nov 3, 2023at OKCGS 141 − 139
Apr 4, 2023at GSGS 136 − 125
Mar 7, 2023at OKCOKC 137 − 128
Feb 6, 2023at GSGS 141 − 114

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W
Nov 5, 2025at POR119 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025at LAC126 − 107W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W