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Thunder at Clippers

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 10:00 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final OKC 126 – LAC 107
← NBA / Nov 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC23333832126
LAC33242921107
Team box
OKC·LAC
45-86
field goals
33-80
18-38
3-pointers
18-43
18-22
free throws
23-27
40
rebounds
42
28
assists
26
11
turnovers
19
50
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC2930412
James HardenLAC302566
Isaiah JoeOKC212230
John CollinsLAC251741
Derrick Jones Jr.LAC281642
Aaron WigginsOKC261222

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +25
OKC +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 13 · OKC 25lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 67%, LAC 33% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 4.3
Expected score
OKC 113.1 – 108.8 LAC
Expected total
221.8
ThunderThe matchupClippers
−206Our fair odds+206
113.1Expected points108.8
+1.35Power rating+0.37
122.1Points / game112.5
109.7Allowed / game113.3
47.0FG%49.5
31.33P%37.0
48.0Rebounds / game42.8
7−0Season record3−3
9−1Last 104−6
Jalen Williams · Kenrich Williams
Nikola Topic · Thomas SorberOut (4 each)Bradley Beal · Jordan Miller
Kawhi Leonard · Kobe Sanders

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · LAC chance
Our model fair67.3%32.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−20667%————
LACLA Clippers+20633%————
SpreadOKC by 4.3
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−4.3our margin————
LACLA Clippers+4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.8
Over221.8our total————
Under221.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 4.3 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 1%LA Clippers by 14 points: 1%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: <1%LA Clippers by 24 points: <1%LA Clippers by 25 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byLAC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more52%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more37%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.8 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.570%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GKris Dunnstarted
FNicolas Batumstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CIvica Zubacstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·LAC
Nov 2, 2025 vs NO
last game
Nov 3, 2025 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 4, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAjay Mitchell · bilateral gluteal; contusionQuestionable
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · right knee; injury managementOut
LACJordan Miller · left hamstring; strainOut
LACKawhi Leonard · right ankle; sprainOut
LACKobe Sanders · right knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
OKC·LAC
+1.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
122.1
points / game
112.5
109.7
points allowed / game
113.3
7−0
season record
3−3
4−0
home record
3−1
3−0
away record
0−2
W7
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
4−6
47.0
FG%
49.5
31.3
3P%
37.0
48.0
rebounds / game
42.8
25.1
assists / game
24.8
12.3
turnovers / game
17.8
52.6
points in paint / game
51.0

Rating Trend

OKC · LAC · 8 days
Oklahoma City ThunderLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAC 2−8
Mar 23, 2025at LACOKC 103 − 101
Jan 2, 2025at OKCOKC 116 − 98
Nov 11, 2024at OKCOKC 134 − 128
Nov 2, 2024at LACOKC 105 − 92
Feb 22, 2024at OKCOKC 129 − 107
Jan 16, 2024at LACLAC 128 − 117
Dec 21, 2023at OKCOKC 134 − 115
Mar 23, 2023at LACLAC 127 − 105
Mar 21, 2023at LACOKC 101 − 100
Oct 27, 2022at OKCOKC 118 − 110

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W

LAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 3, 2025vs MIA119 − 120L
Oct 31, 2025vs NO126 − 124W
Oct 28, 2025at GS79 − 98L
Oct 26, 2025vs POR114 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025vs PHX129 − 102W
Oct 22, 2025at UTAH108 − 129L
May 3, 2025at DEN101 − 120L
May 1, 2025vs DEN111 − 105W
Apr 29, 2025at DEN115 − 131L
Apr 26, 2025vs DEN99 − 101L