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Thunder at Trail Blazers

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final OKC 119 – POR 121
← NBA / Nov 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC41242133119
POR21362440121
Team box
OKC·POR
38-91
field goals
36-88
15-38
3-pointers
19-43
28-31
free throws
30-32
50
rebounds
49
24
assists
24
15
turnovers
18
40
points in paint
32
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC383594
Aaron WigginsOKC272722
Deni AvdijaPOR3726109
Jrue HolidayPOR352263
Ajay MitchellOKC312143
Jerami GrantPOR342055

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +22
OKC +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 9 · OKC 22lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 78%, POR 22% · Updated Nov 5, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 10.4
Expected score
OKC 118.0 – 107.6 POR
Expected total
225.6
ThunderThe matchupTrail Blazers
−356Our fair odds+356
118.0Expected points107.6
+1.35Power rating−0.19
122.6Points / game120.3
109.4Allowed / game117.6
47.6FG%45.1
33.23P%32.3
47.0Rebounds / game41.1
8−0Season record4−3
9−1Last 105−5
Alex Caruso · Chet Holmgren
Jalen Williams · Kenrich Williams
Luguentz DortOutBlake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Matisse Thybulle · Scoot Henderson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · POR chance
Our model fair78.1%21.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−35678%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+35622%————
SpreadOKC by 10.4
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−10.4our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+10.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.6
Over225.6our total————
Under225.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 10.4 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byPOR wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more69%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more53%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·POR
Nov 4, 2025 at LAC
last game
Nov 3, 2025 vs LAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · restOut
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; sprainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right upper trap; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury recoveryOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left calf; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
OKC·POR
+1.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
122.6
points / game
120.3
109.4
points allowed / game
117.6
8−0
season record
4−3
4−0
home record
2−2
4−0
away record
2−1
W8
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
5−5
47.6
FG%
45.1
33.2
3P%
32.3
47.0
rebounds / game
41.1
25.5
assists / game
26.6
12.1
turnovers / game
17.0
52.2
points in paint / game
53.7

Rating Trend

OKC · POR · 9 days
Oklahoma City ThunderPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 0−10
Mar 7, 2025at OKCOKC 107 − 89
Jan 26, 2025at POROKC 118 − 108
Nov 20, 2024at OKCOKC 109 − 99
Nov 1, 2024at POROKC 137 − 114
Mar 6, 2024at POROKC 128 − 120
Jan 23, 2024at OKCOKC 111 − 109
Jan 11, 2024at OKCOKC 139 − 77
Nov 19, 2023at POROKC 134 − 91
Mar 26, 2023at POROKC 118 − 112
Feb 10, 2023at POROKC 138 − 129

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Nov 4, 2025at LAC126 − 107W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 3, 2025vs LAL115 − 123L
Oct 31, 2025vs DEN109 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at UTAH136 − 134W
Oct 27, 2025at LAL122 − 108W
Oct 26, 2025at LAC107 − 114L
Oct 24, 2025vs GS139 − 119W
Oct 22, 2025vs MIN114 − 118L
Apr 13, 2025vs LAL109 − 81W
Apr 11, 2025vs GS86 − 103L
Apr 9, 2025at UTAH126 − 133L