bayesRatings

Thunder at Grizzlies

NBA · Sunday, Nov 9 · 5:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final OKC 114 – MEM 100
← NBA / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC25263429114
MEM33291820100
Team box
OKC·MEM
41-95
field goals
35-91
10-43
3-pointers
17-44
22-26
free throws
13-18
51
rebounds
50
19
assists
30
6
turnovers
14
56
points in paint
32
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC353576
Ajay MitchellOKC322164
Chet HolmgrenOKC302172
Isaiah HartensteinOKC3018132
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM291772
Cedric CowardMEM2913104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +19
OKC +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 19 · OKC 16lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 75%, MEM 25% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 8.6
Expected score
OKC 121.5 – 112.9 MEM
Expected total
234.4
ThunderThe matchupGrizzlies
−296Our fair odds+296
121.5Expected points112.9
+1.35Power rating+0.00
123.2Points / game115.1
109.7Allowed / game119.1
47.7FG%44.2
34.23P%33.3
47.8Rebounds / game43.0
9−1Season record4−6
9−1Last 104−6
Aaron Wiggins · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Luguentz Dort
Nikola TopicOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Javon Small
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Ty Jerome
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · MEM chance
Our model fair74.8%25.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−29675%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+29625%————
SpreadOKC by 8.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.6our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+8.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.4
Over234.4our total————
Under234.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byMEM wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more48%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.4 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·MEM
Nov 7, 2025 at SAC
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 9, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right upper trap; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJavon Small · left toe; sorenessOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
OKC·MEM
+1.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
123.2
points / game
115.1
109.7
points allowed / game
119.1
9−1
season record
4−6
4−0
home record
3−4
5−1
away record
1−2
W1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
4−6
47.7
FG%
44.2
34.2
3P%
33.3
47.8
rebounds / game
43.0
25.5
assists / game
27.2
12.3
turnovers / game
14.7
51.8
points in paint / game
47.6

Rating Trend

OKC · MEM · 13 days
Oklahoma City ThunderMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 0−10
Apr 26, 2025at MEMOKC 117 − 115post
Apr 24, 2025at MEMOKC 114 − 108post
Apr 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 99post
Apr 20, 2025at OKCOKC 131 − 80post
Mar 27, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 104
Mar 5, 2025at MEMOKC 120 − 103
Feb 8, 2025at MEMOKC 125 − 112
Dec 29, 2024at OKCOKC 130 − 106
Mar 16, 2024at MEMOKC 118 − 112
Mar 10, 2024at OKCOKC 124 − 93

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W
Nov 5, 2025at POR119 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025at LAC126 − 107W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W

MEM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 7, 2025vs DAL118 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs HOU109 − 124L
Nov 3, 2025vs DET106 − 114L
Nov 2, 2025at TOR104 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAL112 − 117L
Oct 29, 2025at PHX114 − 113W
Oct 27, 2025at GS118 − 131L
Oct 25, 2025vs IND128 − 103W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIA114 − 146L
Oct 22, 2025vs NO128 − 122W