bayesRatings

Mavericks at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final DAL 104 – MEM 118
← NBA / Nov 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL24272924104
MEM34402816118
Team box
DAL·MEM
42-86
field goals
41-85
10-39
3-pointers
13-35
10-16
free throws
23-28
44
rebounds
42
25
assists
27
18
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ja MorantMEM3221513
Cedric CowardMEM282194
Max ChristieDAL281811
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM291740
Naji MarshallDAL251674
Santi AldamaMEM281622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +35
DAL +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 35 · DAL 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 41%, MEM 59% · Updated Nov 7, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 2.8
Expected score
MEM 119.0 – 116.2 DAL
Expected total
235.2
MavericksThe matchupGrizzlies
+142Our fair odds−142
116.2Expected points119.0
−0.11Power rating+0.00
106.2Points / game114.8
113.8Allowed / game120.8
44.1FG%43.8
31.83P%32.9
43.0Rebounds / game43.1
2−6Season record3−6
3−7Last 103−7
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOutBrandon Clarke · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome · Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · MEM chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+14241%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−14259%————
SpreadMEM by 2.8
DALDallas Mavericks+2.8our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.2
Over235.2our total————
Under235.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 2.8 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← DAL wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more48%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more33%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.2 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GD'Angelo Russellstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·MEM
Nov 5, 2025 vs NO
last game
Nov 5, 2025 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; sprainOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainDoubtful
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
DAL·MEM
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
106.2
points / game
114.8
113.8
points allowed / game
120.8
2−6
season record
3−6
2−4
home record
2−4
0−2
away record
1−2
L3
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
3−7
44.1
FG%
43.8
31.8
3P%
32.9
43.0
rebounds / game
43.1
23.4
assists / game
27.2
16.2
turnovers / game
14.7
46.0
points in paint / game
47.6

Rating Trend

DAL · MEM · 11 days
Dallas MavericksMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 7−3
Apr 13, 2025at MEMMEM 132 − 97
Mar 7, 2025at DALMEM 122 − 111
Jan 6, 2025at MEMMEM 119 − 104
Dec 3, 2024at DALDAL 121 − 116
Jan 9, 2024at DALMEM 120 − 103
Dec 11, 2023at MEMDAL 120 − 113
Dec 1, 2023at DALMEM 108 − 94
Oct 30, 2023at MEMDAL 125 − 110
Mar 20, 2023at MEMMEM 112 − 108
Mar 13, 2023at DALMEM 104 − 88

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 5, 2025vs NO99 − 101L
Nov 3, 2025at HOU102 − 110L
Nov 1, 2025at DET110 − 122L
Oct 29, 2025vs IND107 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025vs OKC94 − 101L
Oct 26, 2025vs TOR139 − 129W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L
Oct 22, 2025vs SA92 − 125L
Apr 13, 2025at MEM97 − 132L
Apr 11, 2025vs TOR124 − 102W

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Nov 5, 2025vs HOU109 − 124L
Nov 3, 2025vs DET106 − 114L
Nov 2, 2025at TOR104 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAL112 − 117L
Oct 29, 2025at PHX114 − 113W
Oct 27, 2025at GS118 − 131L
Oct 25, 2025vs IND128 − 103W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIA114 − 146L
Oct 22, 2025vs NO128 − 122W
Apr 26, 2025vs OKC115 − 117L