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Trail Blazers at Pelicans

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final POR 125 – NO 117
← NBA / Nov 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR30273830125
NO25342632117
Team box
POR·NO
48-83
field goals
43-91
13-37
3-pointers
13-39
16-17
free throws
18-21
39
rebounds
35
26
assists
28
13
turnovers
10
64
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shaedon SharpePOR303553
Deni AvdijaPOR353212
Derik QueenNO382674
Saddiq BeyNO352565
Trey Murphy IIINO392255
Jrue HolidayPOR3717412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +15
POR +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 6 · POR 15lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 59%, NO 41% · Updated Nov 12, 2025

Expected margin
POR by 4.4
Expected score
POR 116.2 – 111.8 NO
Expected total
227.9
Trail BlazersThe matchupPelicans
−141Our fair odds+141
116.2Expected points111.8
−0.17Power rating−0.79
120.6Points / game108.0
119.3Allowed / game121.3
44.6FG%43.2
33.33P%35.0
43.2Rebounds / game41.9
5−5Season record2−8
5−5Last 102−8
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Javonte Cooke · Matisse Thybulle
Scoot HendersonOut (5 each)Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Jordan Poole · Trey Alexander
Zion Williamson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · NO chance
Our model fair58.6%41.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers−14159%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+14141%————
SpreadPOR by 4.4
PORPortland Trail Blazers−4.4our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.9
Over227.9our total————
Under227.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 4.4 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%
← POR wins byNO wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more52%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more37%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FKevon Looneystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·NO
Nov 10, 2025 at ORL
last game
Nov 10, 2025 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 12, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJavonte Cooke · g league - two-wayOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOZion Williamson · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
POR·NO
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.79
120.6
points / game
108.0
119.3
points allowed / game
121.3
5−5
season record
2−8
3−2
home record
1−2
2−3
away record
1−6
L2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
2−8
44.6
FG%
43.2
33.3
3P%
35.0
43.2
rebounds / game
41.9
26.1
assists / game
22.2
16.7
turnovers / game
15.1
52.4
points in paint / game
49.0

Rating Trend

POR · NO · 16 days
Portland Trail BlazersNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 7−3
Jan 8, 2025at NOPOR 119 − 100
Nov 4, 2024at NOPOR 118 − 100
Oct 27, 2024at PORPOR 125 − 103
Oct 25, 2024at PORNO 105 − 103
Apr 9, 2024at PORNO 110 − 100
Mar 16, 2024at NONO 126 − 107
Feb 10, 2024at PORNO 93 − 84
Mar 27, 2023at PORNO 124 − 90
Mar 12, 2023at NONO 127 − 110
Mar 1, 2023at PORNO 121 − 110

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 10, 2025at ORL112 − 115L
Nov 8, 2025at MIA131 − 136L
Nov 5, 2025vs OKC121 − 119W
Nov 3, 2025vs LAL115 − 123L
Oct 31, 2025vs DEN109 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at UTAH136 − 134W
Oct 27, 2025at LAL122 − 108W
Oct 26, 2025at LAC107 − 114L
Oct 24, 2025vs GS139 − 119W
Oct 22, 2025vs MIN114 − 118L

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Nov 10, 2025at PHX98 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 5, 2025at DAL101 − 99W
Nov 4, 2025vs CHA116 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at OKC106 − 137L
Oct 31, 2025at LAC124 − 126L
Oct 29, 2025at DEN88 − 122L
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS90 − 122L
Oct 24, 2025vs SA116 − 120L
Oct 22, 2025at MEM122 − 128L