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Trail Blazers at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Nov 8 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final POR 131 – MIA 136
← NBA / Nov 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR30353234131
MIA27452836136
Team box
POR·MIA
49-109
field goals
49-96
14-51
3-pointers
10-35
19-23
free throws
28-36
57
rebounds
47
29
assists
37
20
turnovers
15
68
points in paint
74
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Deni AvdijaPOR3733118
Nikola JovicMIA312996
Norman PowellMIA302223
Shaedon SharpePOR282191
Jrue HolidayPOR3518913
Jerami GrantPOR221834

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +12
POR +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 12 · POR 12lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 40%, MIA 60% · Updated Nov 8, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 3.8
Expected score
MIA 112.9 – 109.1 POR
Expected total
222.0
Trail BlazersThe matchupHeat
+147Our fair odds−147
109.1Expected points112.9
−0.19Power rating−0.03
120.4Points / game122.8
117.8Allowed / game116.6
44.6FG%49.6
33.83P%39.0
42.1Rebounds / game42.9
5−3Season record5−4
6−4Last 105−5
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Javonte Cooke · Matisse Thybulle
Scoot HendersonOut (5 each)Bam Adebayo · Jahmir Young
Myron Gardner · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · MIA chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+14740%————
MIAMiami Heat−14760%————
SpreadMIA by 3.8
PORPortland Trail Blazers+3.8our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−3.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.0
Over222.0our total————
Under222.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 3.8 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%
← POR wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more51%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more35%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.0 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.568%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.529%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·MIA
Nov 5, 2025 vs OKC
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs CHA
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 8, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJavonte Cooke · g league - two-wayOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left calf; strainProbable
Miami Heat
MIABam Adebayo · left big toe; sprainOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
MIANorman Powell · right ankle; sprainProbable
MIAPelle Larsson · head; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
POR·MIA
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
120.4
points / game
122.8
117.8
points allowed / game
116.6
5−3
season record
5−4
3−2
home record
3−0
2−1
away record
2−4
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
44.6
FG%
49.6
33.8
3P%
39.0
42.1
rebounds / game
42.9
26.2
assists / game
29.7
17.1
turnovers / game
14.9
51.0
points in paint / game
56.7

Rating Trend

POR · MIA · 12 days
Portland Trail BlazersMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 6−2
Jan 21, 2025at MIAPOR 116 − 107
Jan 11, 2025at PORMIA 119 − 98
Mar 29, 2024at MIAMIA 142 − 82
Feb 27, 2024at PORMIA 106 − 96
Nov 7, 2022at MIAPOR 110 − 107
Oct 26, 2022at PORMIA 119 − 98
Jan 19, 2022at MIAMIA 104 − 92
Jan 5, 2022at PORMIA 115 − 109

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 5, 2025vs OKC121 − 119W
Nov 3, 2025vs LAL115 − 123L
Oct 31, 2025vs DEN109 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at UTAH136 − 134W
Oct 27, 2025at LAL122 − 108W
Oct 26, 2025at LAC107 − 114L
Oct 24, 2025vs GS139 − 119W
Oct 22, 2025vs MIN114 − 118L
Apr 13, 2025vs LAL109 − 81W
Apr 11, 2025vs GS86 − 103L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W
Nov 5, 2025at DEN112 − 122L
Nov 3, 2025at LAC120 − 119W
Nov 2, 2025at LAL120 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025at SA101 − 107L
Oct 28, 2025vs CHA144 − 117W
Oct 26, 2025vs NY115 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L