bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final POR 116 – HOU 140
← NBA / Nov 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR32283125116
HOU41283635140
Team box
POR·HOU
42-89
field goals
53-106
13-36
3-pointers
17-45
19-27
free throws
17-20
44
rebounds
49
18
assists
26
20
turnovers
6
54
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU363053
Alperen SengunHOU3625109
Deni AvdijaPOR3022104
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU272253
Shaedon SharpePOR311983
Amen ThompsonHOU321924

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +30
POR +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 30 · POR 9lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 28%, HOU 72% · Updated Nov 14, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 9.1
Expected score
HOU 117.4 – 108.3 POR
Expected total
225.7
Trail BlazersThe matchupRockets
+259Our fair odds−259
108.3Expected points117.4
−0.17Power rating+0.54
121.0Points / game124.0
119.1Allowed / game113.0
45.8FG%49.9
33.53P%43.8
42.8Rebounds / game49.4
6−5Season record7−3
6−4Last 107−3
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Hansen Yang · Javonte Cooke
Matisse ThybulleOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon Harris

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · HOU chance
Our model fair27.8%72.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+25928%————
HOUHouston Rockets−25972%————
SpreadHOU by 9.1
PORPortland Trail Blazers+9.1our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.7
Over225.7our total————
Under225.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 9.1 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 51 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 50 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%
← POR wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more64%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more49%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.7 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·HOU
Nov 12, 2025 at NO
last game
Nov 12, 2025 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORHansen Yang · g league - on assignmentOut
PORJavonte Cooke · g league - two-wayOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
POR·HOU
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
121.0
points / game
124.0
119.1
points allowed / game
113.0
6−5
season record
7−3
3−2
home record
3−1
3−3
away record
4−2
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
7−3
45.8
FG%
49.9
33.5
3P%
43.8
42.8
rebounds / game
49.4
26.1
assists / game
26.5
16.4
turnovers / game
17.0
53.5
points in paint / game
52.8

Rating Trend

POR · HOU · 18 days
Portland Trail BlazersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Jan 18, 2025at PORHOU 125 − 103
Nov 23, 2024at HOUPOR 104 − 98
Nov 22, 2024at HOUHOU 116 − 88
Apr 12, 2024at PORHOU 116 − 107
Mar 25, 2024at HOUHOU 110 − 92
Mar 8, 2024at PORHOU 123 − 107
Jan 24, 2024at HOUPOR 137 − 131
Feb 26, 2023at PORPOR 131 − 114
Dec 17, 2022at HOUPOR 107 − 95
Oct 28, 2022at PORPOR 125 − 111

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 12, 2025at NO125 − 117W
Nov 10, 2025at ORL112 − 115L
Nov 8, 2025at MIA131 − 136L
Nov 5, 2025vs OKC121 − 119W
Nov 3, 2025vs LAL115 − 123L
Oct 31, 2025vs DEN109 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at UTAH136 − 134W
Oct 27, 2025at LAL122 − 108W
Oct 26, 2025at LAC107 − 114L
Oct 24, 2025vs GS139 − 119W

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025at MIL122 − 115W
Nov 7, 2025at SA110 − 121L
Nov 5, 2025at MEM124 − 109W
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L