bayesRatings

Rockets at Bucks

NBA · Sunday, Nov 9 · 2:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final HOU 122 – MIL 115
← NBA / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU28223240122
MIL30312430115
Team box
HOU·MIL
48-90
field goals
44-79
10-26
3-pointers
13-29
16-21
free throws
14-24
50
rebounds
27
24
assists
25
18
turnovers
13
58
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL363783
Kevin DurantHOU373137
Alperen SengunHOU4023117
Ryan RollinsMIL301925
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU311691
Reed SheppardHOU291602

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +14
HOU +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 14 · HOU 8lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 49%, MIL 51% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 0.8
Expected score
MIL 115.0 – 114.2 HOU
Expected total
229.2
RocketsThe matchupBucks
+103Our fair odds−103
114.2Expected points115.0
+0.51Power rating+0.31
122.9Points / game120.6
112.9Allowed / game118.1
49.1FG%50.4
43.93P%39.7
48.9Rebounds / game42.2
5−3Season record6−3
6−4Last 106−4
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon HarrisOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MIL chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+10349%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−10351%————
SpreadMIL by 0.8
HOUHouston Rockets+0.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.2
Over229.2our total————
Under229.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 0.8 expected
Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%
← HOU wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more43%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more29%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MIL
Nov 7, 2025 at SA
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 8, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus surgeryOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
HOU·MIL
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
122.9
points / game
120.6
112.9
points allowed / game
118.1
5−3
season record
6−3
2−1
home record
4−1
3−2
away record
2−2
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
49.1
FG%
50.4
43.9
3P%
39.7
48.9
rebounds / game
42.2
26.1
assists / game
26.7
17.5
turnovers / game
14.3
51.8
points in paint / game
50.7

Rating Trend

HOU · MIL · 13 days
Houston RocketsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIL 5−3
Feb 25, 2025at HOUHOU 100 − 97
Nov 18, 2024at MILMIL 101 − 100
Jan 6, 2024at HOUHOU 112 − 108
Dec 17, 2023at MILMIL 128 − 119
Dec 11, 2022at HOUHOU 97 − 92
Oct 22, 2022at MILMIL 125 − 105
Dec 22, 2021at MILMIL 126 − 106
Dec 10, 2021at HOUMIL 123 − 114

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 7, 2025at SA110 − 121L
Nov 5, 2025at MEM124 − 109W
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 7, 2025vs CHI126 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at TOR100 − 128L
Nov 3, 2025at IND117 − 115W
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L