bayesRatings

Nuggets at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Nov 21 · 8:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final DEN 112 – HOU 109
← NBA / Nov 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN25213432112
HOU12372931109
Team box
DEN·HOU
40-76
field goals
41-93
11-29
3-pointers
14-36
21-27
free throws
13-20
38
rebounds
41
28
assists
21
15
turnovers
16
40
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN3934109
Reed SheppardHOU372704
Jamal MurrayDEN4126210
Amen ThompsonHOU432272
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU3721114
Alperen SengunHOU361456

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +13
DEN +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 5 · DEN 13lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 45%, HOU 55% · Updated Nov 21, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 3.0
Expected score
HOU 117.1 – 114.1 DEN
Expected total
231.2
NuggetsThe matchupRockets
+120Our fair odds−120
114.1Expected points117.1
+0.67Power rating+0.59
124.6Points / game123.9
113.1Allowed / game112.5
50.6FG%49.0
36.63P%42.6
47.3Rebounds / game50.3
11−3Season record10−3
8−2Last 109−1
Christian Braun · Curtis Jones
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar BatesOut (5 each)Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon Harris
Tari Eason

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+12045%————
HOUHouston Rockets−12055%————
SpreadHOU by 3.0
DENDenver Nuggets+3our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−3our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.2
Over231.2our total————
Under231.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 3.0 expected
Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%
← DEN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more48%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more34%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

231.2 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CSteven Adamsstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·HOU
Nov 19, 2025 at NO
last game
Nov 19, 2025 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 21, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENAaron Gordon · bilateral hamstring; injury managementProbable
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right knee; tendinopathyQuestionable
HOUSteven Adams · right ankle; tendinopathyQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
DEN·HOU
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
124.6
points / game
123.9
113.1
points allowed / game
112.5
11−3
season record
10−3
6−1
home record
5−1
5−2
away record
5−2
W1
streak
W5
8−2
last 10
9−1
50.6
FG%
49.0
36.6
3P%
42.6
47.3
rebounds / game
50.3
29.2
assists / game
25.6
13.9
turnovers / game
15.7
55.6
points in paint / game
53.4

Rating Trend

DEN · HOU · 25 days
Denver NuggetsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Apr 13, 2025at HOUDEN 126 − 111
Mar 23, 2025at HOUDEN 116 − 111
Jan 15, 2025at DENHOU 128 − 108
Dec 8, 2023at DENHOU 114 − 106
Nov 29, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 124
Nov 24, 2023at HOUHOU 105 − 86
Nov 12, 2023at HOUHOU 107 − 104
Apr 4, 2023at HOUHOU 124 − 103
Feb 28, 2023at HOUDEN 133 − 112
Nov 30, 2022at DENDEN 120 − 100

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W
Nov 8, 2025vs IND117 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025vs GS129 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs MIA122 − 112W
Nov 3, 2025vs SAC130 − 124W
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L

HOU · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Nov 19, 2025at CLE114 − 104W
Nov 16, 2025vs ORL117 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025vs POR140 − 116W
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025at MIL122 − 115W
Nov 7, 2025at SA110 − 121L
Nov 5, 2025at MEM124 − 109W
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W