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Nuggets at Timberwolves

NBA · Saturday, Nov 15 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final DEN 123 – MIN 112
← NBA / Nov 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN29263236123
MIN31292626112
Team box
DEN·MIN
39-83
field goals
41-88
14-29
3-pointers
10-34
31-38
free throws
20-23
47
rebounds
40
29
assists
23
13
turnovers
13
42
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN37271211
Julius RandleMIN382668
Anthony EdwardsMIN382686
Jamal MurrayDEN3923612
Aaron GordonDEN3623101
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN292331

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +14
DEN +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 7 · DEN 14lead changes: 26

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 44%, MIN 56% · Updated Nov 15, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 3.5
Expected score
MIN 115.8 – 112.3 DEN
Expected total
228.1
NuggetsThe matchupTimberwolves
+129Our fair odds−129
112.3Expected points115.8
+0.62Power rating+0.62
124.5Points / game121.4
111.2Allowed / game115.2
50.9FG%50.3
35.53P%39.8
47.4Rebounds / game42.6
9−2Season record8−4
9−1Last 107−3
Cameron Johnson · Christian Braun
Curtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Tamar BatesOutEnrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+12944%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−12956%————
SpreadMIN by 3.5
DENDenver Nuggets+3.5our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.1
Over228.1our total————
Under228.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 3.5 expected
Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more50%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more35%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

228.1 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GTim Hardaway Jr.started
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MIN
Nov 12, 2025 at LAC
last game
Nov 14, 2025 vs SAC
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right biceps; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENNikola Jokic · left wrist; sprainQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left fifth metatarsal; bone bruiseOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
DEN·MIN
+0.62
rating (0 = average)
+0.62
124.5
points / game
121.4
111.2
points allowed / game
115.2
9−2
season record
8−4
6−0
home record
3−2
3−2
away record
5−2
W6
streak
W4
9−1
last 10
7−3
50.9
FG%
50.3
35.5
3P%
39.8
47.4
rebounds / game
42.6
29.5
assists / game
26.7
13.9
turnovers / game
15.2
56.9
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

DEN · MIN · 19 days
Denver NuggetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Oct 27, 2025at MINDEN 127 − 114
Apr 1, 2025at DENMIN 140 − 139
Mar 12, 2025at DENMIN 115 − 95
Jan 25, 2025at MINMIN 133 − 104
Nov 1, 2024at MINMIN 119 − 116
May 19, 2024at DENMIN 98 − 90post
May 16, 2024at MINMIN 115 − 70post
May 14, 2024at DENDEN 112 − 97post
May 12, 2024at MINDEN 115 − 107post
May 10, 2024at MINDEN 117 − 90post

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W
Nov 8, 2025vs IND117 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025vs GS129 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs MIA122 − 112W
Nov 3, 2025vs SAC130 − 124W
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L
Oct 29, 2025vs NO122 − 88W
Oct 27, 2025at MIN127 − 114W
Oct 25, 2025vs PHX133 − 111W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 14, 2025vs SAC124 − 110W
Nov 10, 2025at UTAH120 − 113W
Nov 9, 2025at SAC144 − 117W
Nov 7, 2025vs UTAH137 − 97W
Nov 5, 2025at NY114 − 137L
Nov 3, 2025at BKN125 − 109W
Nov 1, 2025at CHA122 − 105W
Oct 29, 2025vs LAL115 − 116L
Oct 27, 2025vs DEN114 − 127L
Oct 26, 2025vs IND114 − 110W