bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Hornets

NBA · Saturday, Nov 1 · 5:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final MIN 122 – CHA 105
← NBA / Nov 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN25253636122
CHA31251831105
Team box
MIN·CHA
47-87
field goals
34-86
17-36
3-pointers
13-45
11-14
free throws
24-27
38
rebounds
45
31
assists
23
10
turnovers
14
56
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Miles BridgesCHA373084
Julius RandleMIN323074
LaMelo BallCHA331878
Donte DiVincenzoMIN311834
Naz ReidMIN221831
Tre MannCHA231615

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +20
MIN +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 8 · MIN 20lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 79%, CHA 21% · Updated Nov 1, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 11.6
Expected score
MIN 114.3 – 102.7 CHA
Expected total
217.0
TimberwolvesThe matchupHornets
−369Our fair odds+369
114.3Expected points102.7
+0.57Power rating−1.00
114.2Points / game124.0
119.0Allowed / game124.4
47.8FG%49.4
39.03P%40.2
40.0Rebounds / game45.8
2−3Season record2−3
3−7Last 102−8
Anthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Rocco ZikarskyOutAntonio Reeves · Brandon Miller
Drew Peterson · Grant Williams
Josh Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHA chance
Our model fair78.7%21.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−36979%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+36921%————
SpreadMIN by 11.6
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−11.6our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+11.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.0
Over217.0our total————
Under217.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 11.6 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 4%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 4%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%
← MIN wins byCHA wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more73%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more56%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.0 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.568%
Total over 217.548%
Total over 227.529%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHA
Oct 29, 2025 vs LAL
last game
Oct 30, 2025 vs ORL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right hamstring; strainOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHABrandon Miller · left shoulder; subluxationOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIN·CHA
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
−1.00
114.2
points / game
124.0
119.0
points allowed / game
124.4
2−3
season record
2−3
1−2
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
1−2
L2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
2−8
47.8
FG%
49.4
39.0
3P%
40.2
40.0
rebounds / game
45.8
22.6
assists / game
28.6
15.6
turnovers / game
17.0
48.0
points in paint / game
54.8

Rating Trend

MIN · CHA · 5 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 4−4
Mar 5, 2025at CHAMIN 125 − 110
Nov 4, 2024at MINMIN 114 − 93
Jan 22, 2024at MINCHA 128 − 125
Dec 2, 2023at CHAMIN 123 − 117
Feb 24, 2023at MINCHA 121 − 113
Nov 25, 2022at CHACHA 110 − 108
Feb 15, 2022at MINMIN 126 − 120
Nov 26, 2021at CHACHA 133 − 115

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 29, 2025vs LAL115 − 116L
Oct 27, 2025vs DEN114 − 127L
Oct 26, 2025vs IND114 − 110W
Oct 24, 2025at LAL110 − 128L
Oct 22, 2025at POR118 − 114W
May 28, 2025at OKC94 − 124L
May 26, 2025vs OKC126 − 128L
May 24, 2025vs OKC143 − 101W
May 22, 2025at OKC103 − 118L
May 20, 2025at OKC88 − 114L

CHA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 30, 2025vs ORL107 − 123L
Oct 28, 2025at MIA117 − 144L
Oct 26, 2025at WSH139 − 113W
Oct 25, 2025at PHI121 − 125L
Oct 22, 2025vs BKN136 − 117W
Apr 13, 2025at BOS86 − 93L
Apr 11, 2025at BOS94 − 130L
Apr 9, 2025at TOR96 − 126L
Apr 8, 2025vs MEM100 − 124L
Apr 6, 2025vs CHI117 − 131L