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Nuggets at Pelicans

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final DEN 125 – NO 118
← NBA / Nov 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN26363528125
NO30282535118
Team box
DEN·NO
46-83
field goals
44-98
11-31
3-pointers
7-34
22-27
free throws
23-31
41
rebounds
44
35
assists
25
20
turnovers
12
62
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Peyton WatsonDEN3432123
Derik QueenNO303094
Nikola JokicDEN34281112
Trey Murphy IIINO362323
Jamal MurrayDEN361608
Jeremiah FearsNO251631

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +19
DEN +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 13 · DEN 19lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 78%, NO 22% · Updated Nov 19, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 11.6
Expected score
DEN 122.1 – 110.5 NO
Expected total
232.6
NuggetsThe matchupPelicans
−352Our fair odds+352
122.1Expected points110.5
+0.67Power rating−0.88
124.6Points / game108.3
112.7Allowed / game121.9
50.3FG%44.1
36.83P%34.9
47.8Rebounds / game41.1
10−3Season record2−12
8−2Last 102−8
Christian Braun · Curtis Jones
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar BatesOut (5 each)Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Jordan Poole · Karlo Matkovic
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · NO chance
Our model fair77.9%22.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−35278%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+35222%————
SpreadDEN by 11.6
DENDenver Nuggets−11.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+11.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.6
Over232.6our total————
Under232.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 11.6 expected
Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%
← DEN wins byNO wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more73%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more56%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FZeke Nnajistarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·NO
Nov 17, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Nov 17, 2025 vs OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 19, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · low back; painOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENAaron Gordon · bilateral hamstring; injury managementQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · right calf; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOSaddiq Bey · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
NOZion Williamson · left hamstring; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
DEN·NO
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
−0.88
124.6
points / game
108.3
112.7
points allowed / game
121.9
10−3
season record
2−12
6−1
home record
1−6
4−2
away record
1−6
L1
streak
L6
8−2
last 10
2−8
50.3
FG%
44.1
36.8
3P%
34.9
47.8
rebounds / game
41.1
28.8
assists / game
22.6
13.4
turnovers / game
16.0
55.1
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

DEN · NO · 23 days
Denver NuggetsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 3−7
Oct 29, 2025at DENDEN 122 − 88
Feb 5, 2025at DENDEN 144 − 119
Feb 3, 2025at DENDEN 125 − 113
Dec 22, 2024at NODEN 132 − 129
Nov 15, 2024at NONO 101 − 94
Jan 12, 2024at DENDEN 125 − 113
Nov 17, 2023at NONO 115 − 110
Nov 6, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 116
Mar 30, 2023at DENNO 107 − 88
Jan 31, 2023at DENDEN 122 − 113

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W
Nov 8, 2025vs IND117 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025vs GS129 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs MIA122 − 112W
Nov 3, 2025vs SAC130 − 124W
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L
Oct 29, 2025vs NO122 − 88W

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Nov 17, 2025vs OKC109 − 126L
Nov 16, 2025vs GS106 − 124L
Nov 14, 2025vs LAL104 − 118L
Nov 12, 2025vs POR117 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at PHX98 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 5, 2025at DAL101 − 99W
Nov 4, 2025vs CHA116 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at OKC106 − 137L
Oct 31, 2025at LAC124 − 126L