bayesRatings

Bulls at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Nov 17 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final CHI 130 – DEN 127
← NBA / Nov 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI30334027130
DEN28362934127
Team box
CHI·DEN
48-102
field goals
46-97
19-53
3-pointers
14-36
15-19
free throws
21-25
53
rebounds
53
31
assists
21
9
turnovers
8
50
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN39361813
Jamal MurrayDEN3834114
Aaron GordonDEN3224100
Josh GiddeyCHI3021146
Ayo DosunmuCHI262135
Kevin HuerterCHI242021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +18
CHI +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 8 · CHI 18lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 30%, DEN 70% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 6.9
Expected score
DEN 123.2 – 116.2 CHI
Expected total
239.4
BullsThe matchupNuggets
+238Our fair odds−238
116.2Expected points123.2
−0.01Power rating+0.62
121.0Points / game124.4
121.5Allowed / game111.2
48.2FG%50.6
39.43P%36.6
47.6Rebounds / game47.3
6−6Season record10−2
4−6Last 109−1
Coby White · Emanuel Miller
Lachlan Olbrich · Trentyn Flowers
Zach CollinsOutChristian Braun · Curtis Jones
DaRon Holmes II · Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · DEN chance
Our model fair29.5%70.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+23830%————
DENDenver Nuggets−23870%————
SpreadDEN by 6.9
CHIChicago Bulls+6.9our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.4
Over239.4our total————
Under239.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 6.9 expected
Chicago Bulls by 49 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%
← CHI wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more59%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more43%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.4 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.548%
Total over 249.530%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GKevin Huerterstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·DEN
Nov 16, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Nov 15, 2025 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 17, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHICoby White · right calf; strain; return to competition managementOut
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · g league - two-wayOut
CHIZach Collins · left scaphoid; fractureOut
CHITre Jones · left ankle; impingementDoubtful
CHIAyo Dosunmu · left hamstring; tightnessProbable
Denver Nuggets
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENCameron Johnson · right biceps; strainQuestionable
DENJulian Strawther · low back; painQuestionable
DENNikola Jokic · left wrist; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
CHI·DEN
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.62
121.0
points / game
124.4
121.5
points allowed / game
111.2
6−6
season record
10−2
5−1
home record
6−0
1−5
away record
4−2
L5
streak
W7
4−6
last 10
9−1
48.2
FG%
50.6
39.4
3P%
36.6
47.6
rebounds / game
47.3
29.7
assists / game
29.4
16.0
turnovers / game
13.8
55.8
points in paint / game
55.7

Rating Trend

CHI · DEN · 21 days
Chicago BullsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DEN 3−5
Mar 24, 2025at DENCHI 129 − 119
Jan 27, 2025at CHICHI 129 − 121
Dec 12, 2023at CHIDEN 114 − 106
Nov 4, 2023at DENDEN 123 − 101
Mar 8, 2023at DENCHI 117 − 96
Nov 13, 2022at CHIDEN 126 − 103
Dec 6, 2021at CHICHI 109 − 97
Nov 19, 2021at DENCHI 114 − 108

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Nov 16, 2025at UTAH147 − 150L
Nov 12, 2025at DET113 − 124L
Nov 10, 2025vs SA117 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at CLE122 − 128L
Nov 7, 2025at MIL110 − 126L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHI113 − 111W
Nov 2, 2025at NY116 − 128L
Oct 31, 2025vs NY135 − 125W
Oct 29, 2025vs SAC126 − 113W
Oct 27, 2025vs ATL128 − 123W

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W
Nov 8, 2025vs IND117 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025vs GS129 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs MIA122 − 112W
Nov 3, 2025vs SAC130 − 124W
Oct 31, 2025at POR107 − 109L
Oct 29, 2025vs NO122 − 88W
Oct 27, 2025at MIN127 − 114W