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Thunder at Pelicans

NBA · Monday, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final OKC 126 – NO 109
← NBA / Nov 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC49203621126
NO24322429109
Team box
OKC·NO
43-87
field goals
42-86
17-42
3-pointers
12-28
23-28
free throws
13-15
38
rebounds
35
30
assists
21
18
turnovers
22
52
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Chet HolmgrenOKC332690
Jeremiah FearsNO252411
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC292328
Trey Murphy IIINO331851
Luguentz DortOKC281711
Isaiah HartensteinOKC271676

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +24
OKC +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 2 · OKC 24lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 87%, NO 13% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 16.5
Expected score
OKC 122.2 – 105.7 NO
Expected total
227.9
ThunderThe matchupPelicans
−644Our fair odds+644
122.2Expected points105.7
+1.37Power rating−0.79
121.6Points / game108.2
106.2Allowed / game121.5
48.0FG%43.8
34.93P%34.3
47.2Rebounds / game41.6
13−1Season record2−11
9−1Last 102−8
Aaron Wiggins · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas SorberOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Jordan Poole · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · NO chance
Our model fair86.6%13.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−64487%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+64413%————
SpreadOKC by 16.5
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−16.5our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+16.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.9
Over227.9our total————
Under227.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 16.5 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%
← OKC wins byNO wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more85%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more70%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more53%
Within 5 points either way12%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
CYves Missistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·NO
Nov 15, 2025 at CHA
last game
Nov 16, 2025 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 17, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOZion Williamson · left hamstring; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
OKC·NO
+1.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.79
121.6
points / game
108.2
106.2
points allowed / game
121.5
13−1
season record
2−11
6−0
home record
1−5
7−1
away record
1−6
W5
streak
L5
9−1
last 10
2−8
48.0
FG%
43.8
34.9
3P%
34.3
47.2
rebounds / game
41.6
25.5
assists / game
22.8
12.4
turnovers / game
15.5
51.9
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

OKC · NO · 21 days
Oklahoma City ThunderNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 0−10
Nov 2, 2025at OKCOKC 137 − 106
Apr 13, 2025at NOOKC 115 − 100
Feb 10, 2025at OKCOKC 137 − 101
Dec 7, 2024at NOOKC 119 − 109
Nov 13, 2024at OKCOKC 106 − 88
Apr 29, 2024at NOOKC 97 − 89post
Apr 27, 2024at NOOKC 106 − 85post
Apr 24, 2024at OKCOKC 124 − 92post
Apr 21, 2024at OKCOKC 94 − 92post
Mar 26, 2024at NOOKC 119 − 112

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W
Nov 5, 2025at POR119 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025at LAC126 − 107W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Nov 16, 2025vs GS106 − 124L
Nov 14, 2025vs LAL104 − 118L
Nov 12, 2025vs POR117 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at PHX98 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 5, 2025at DAL101 − 99W
Nov 4, 2025vs CHA116 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at OKC106 − 137L
Oct 31, 2025at LAC124 − 126L
Oct 29, 2025at DEN88 − 122L