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Thunder at Hornets

NBA · Saturday, Nov 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final OKC 109 – CHA 96
← NBA / Nov 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC30253222109
CHA3022182696
Team box
OKC·CHA
45-89
field goals
37-96
11-23
3-pointers
16-42
8-10
free throws
6-7
50
rebounds
42
26
assists
23
14
turnovers
15
58
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC293347
Chet HolmgrenOKC322582
Miles BridgesCHA301544
Ajay MitchellOKC311464
Moussa DiabateCHA2413114
Collin SextonCHA301343

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +22
OKC +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 6 · OKC 22lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 90%, CHA 10% · Updated Nov 15, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 17.9
Expected score
OKC 120.8 – 102.9 CHA
Expected total
223.7
ThunderThe matchupHornets
−864Our fair odds+864
120.8Expected points102.9
+1.37Power rating−1.10
122.5Points / game118.9
107.0Allowed / game121.4
47.8FG%47.2
33.83P%37.2
47.0Rebounds / game46.0
12−1Season record4−8
9−1Last 103−7
Aaron Wiggins · Jalen Williams
Jaylin Williams · Kenrich Williams
Nikola TopicOut (5 each)Brandon Miller · Drew Peterson
Grant Williams · Josh Green
LaMelo Ball

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · CHA chance
Our model fair89.6%10.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−86490%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+86410%————
SpreadOKC by 17.9
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17.9our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+17.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.7
Over223.7our total————
Under223.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 17.9 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%
← OKC wins byCHA wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more88%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more74%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more57%
Within 5 points either way11%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.7 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·CHA
Nov 12, 2025 vs LAL
last game
Nov 14, 2025 at MIL
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCJaylin Williams · left shoulder; sorenessOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHABrandon Miller · left shoulder; subluxationOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHALaMelo Ball · right ankle; injury managementOut
CHALiam McNeeley · n/a; illnessOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAKJ Simpson · left ac joint; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
OKC·CHA
+1.37
rating (0 = average)
−1.10
122.5
points / game
118.9
107.0
points allowed / game
121.4
12−1
season record
4−8
6−0
home record
3−3
6−1
away record
1−5
W4
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
3−7
47.8
FG%
47.2
33.8
3P%
37.2
47.0
rebounds / game
46.0
25.5
assists / game
27.1
12.3
turnovers / game
17.0
51.4
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

OKC · CHA · 19 days
Oklahoma City ThunderCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 4−4
Mar 21, 2025at OKCOKC 141 − 106
Dec 28, 2024at CHAOKC 106 − 94
Apr 7, 2024at CHAOKC 121 − 118
Feb 2, 2024at OKCOKC 126 − 106
Mar 28, 2023at OKCCHA 137 − 134
Dec 29, 2022at CHACHA 121 − 113
Mar 14, 2022at OKCCHA 134 − 116
Jan 21, 2022at CHACHA 121 − 98

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W4
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W
Nov 5, 2025at POR119 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025at LAC126 − 107W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W

CHA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 14, 2025at MIL134 − 147L
Nov 12, 2025vs MIL111 − 100W
Nov 10, 2025vs LAL111 − 121L
Nov 7, 2025at MIA108 − 126L
Nov 4, 2025at NO112 − 116L
Nov 2, 2025vs UTAH126 − 103W
Nov 1, 2025vs MIN105 − 122L
Oct 30, 2025vs ORL107 − 123L
Oct 28, 2025at MIA117 − 144L
Oct 26, 2025at WSH139 − 113W