bayesRatings

Lakers at Hornets

NBA · Monday, Nov 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final LAL 121 – CHA 111
← NBA / Nov 10, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL36293125121
CHA40231533111
Team box
LAL·CHA
45-90
field goals
37-71
14-39
3-pointers
17-36
17-20
free throws
20-22
36
rebounds
37
25
assists
28
11
turnovers
23
46
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL383867
Miles BridgesCHA403485
Austin ReavesLAL292457
Rui HachimuraLAL362132
Kon KnueppelCHA3819109
Deandre AytonLAL331460

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +18
LAL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 7 · LAL 18lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 75%, CHA 25% · Updated Nov 10, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 9.8
Expected score
LAL 117.0 – 107.2 CHA
Expected total
224.2
LakersThe matchupHornets
−303Our fair odds+303
117.0Expected points107.2
+0.33Power rating−1.04
117.8Points / game119.0
117.1Allowed / game121.0
51.6FG%46.9
33.73P%36.9
40.6Rebounds / game47.3
7−3Season record3−6
7−3Last 103−7
Adou Thiero · Gabe Vincent
LeBron JamesOutBrandon Miller · Drew Peterson
Grant Williams · Josh Green
LaMelo Ball

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · CHA chance
Our model fair75.2%24.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−30375%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+30325%————
SpreadLAL by 9.8
LALLos Angeles Lakers−9.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+9.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.2
Over224.2our total————
Under224.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 9.8 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%
← LAL wins byCHA wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more68%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more51%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.2 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·CHA
Nov 8, 2025 at ATL
last game
Nov 7, 2025 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 10, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALGabe Vincent · left ankle; sprainOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
Charlotte Hornets
CHABrandon Miller · left shoulder; subluxationOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHALaMelo Ball · right ankle; impingementOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMiles Bridges · back; spasmsProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
LAL·CHA
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−1.04
117.8
points / game
119.0
117.1
points allowed / game
121.0
7−3
season record
3−6
3−2
home record
2−2
4−1
away record
1−4
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
3−7
51.6
FG%
46.9
33.7
3P%
36.9
40.6
rebounds / game
47.3
26.4
assists / game
26.6
17.1
turnovers / game
16.9
54.4
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

LAL · CHA · 14 days
Los Angeles LakersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 3−5
Feb 19, 2025at LALCHA 100 − 97
Jan 27, 2025at CHALAL 112 − 107
Feb 5, 2024at CHALAL 124 − 118
Dec 28, 2023at LALLAL 133 − 112
Jan 2, 2023at CHALAL 121 − 115
Dec 23, 2022at LALCHA 134 − 130
Jan 28, 2022at CHACHA 117 − 114
Nov 8, 2021at LALLAL 126 − 123

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 8, 2025at ATL102 − 122L
Nov 5, 2025vs SA118 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIA130 − 120W
Oct 31, 2025at MEM117 − 112W
Oct 29, 2025at MIN116 − 115W
Oct 27, 2025vs POR108 − 122L
Oct 26, 2025at SAC127 − 120W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIN128 − 110W
Oct 21, 2025vs GS109 − 119L

CHA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 7, 2025at MIA108 − 126L
Nov 4, 2025at NO112 − 116L
Nov 2, 2025vs UTAH126 − 103W
Nov 1, 2025vs MIN105 − 122L
Oct 30, 2025vs ORL107 − 123L
Oct 28, 2025at MIA117 − 144L
Oct 26, 2025at WSH139 − 113W
Oct 25, 2025at PHI121 − 125L
Oct 22, 2025vs BKN136 − 117W
Apr 13, 2025at BOS86 − 93L