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Lakers at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Nov 8 · 7:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final LAL 102 – ATL 122
← NBA / Nov 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL29251830102
ATL37313024122
Team box
LAL·ATL
37-81
field goals
48-93
12-30
3-pointers
16-39
16-20
free throws
10-11
47
rebounds
37
23
assists
37
20
turnovers
11
46
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL2722511
Mouhamed GueyeATL342177
Zaccharie RisacherATL271914
Asa NewellATL271750
Vit KrejciATL241731
Keaton WallaceATL361427

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +30
LAL +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 30 · LAL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 55%, ATL 45% · Updated Nov 8, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 1.8
Expected score
LAL 120.2 – 118.4 ATL
Expected total
238.6
LakersThe matchupHawks
−121Our fair odds+121
120.2Expected points118.4
+0.33Power rating−0.10
119.6Points / game114.4
116.6Allowed / game116.4
52.2FG%47.0
33.03P%33.0
39.9Rebounds / game43.2
7−2Season record4−5
7−3Last 105−5
Adou Thiero · Austin Reaves
Gabe Vincent · LeBron JamesOutEli John Ndiaye · Kristaps Porzingis
Luke Kennard · Nikola Djurisic
Trae Young

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair54.7%45.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−12155%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+12145%————
SpreadLAL by 1.8
LALLos Angeles Lakers−1.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.6
Over238.6our total————
Under238.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 1.8 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%
← LAL wins byATL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more45%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more31%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.6 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GKeaton Wallacestarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FMouhamed Gueyestarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·ATL
Nov 5, 2025 vs SA
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs TOR
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 8, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALAustin Reaves · right groin; strainOut
LALGabe Vincent · left ankle; sprainOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · illness; managementOut
ATLLuke Kennard · n/a; illnessOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · right elbow; sprainOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLJalen Johnson · right quad; contusionQuestionable
ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker · low back; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
LAL·ATL
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
119.6
points / game
114.4
116.6
points allowed / game
116.4
7−2
season record
4−5
3−2
home record
1−3
4−0
away record
3−2
W5
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
52.2
FG%
47.0
33.0
3P%
33.0
39.9
rebounds / game
43.2
26.8
assists / game
27.3
16.8
turnovers / game
15.0
55.3
points in paint / game
54.0

Rating Trend

LAL · ATL · 12 days
Los Angeles LakersAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ATL 3−5
Jan 3, 2025at LALLAL 119 − 102
Dec 6, 2024at ATLATL 134 − 132
Mar 18, 2024at LALLAL 136 − 105
Jan 30, 2024at ATLATL 138 − 122
Jan 6, 2023at LALLAL 130 − 114
Dec 30, 2022at ATLLAL 130 − 121
Jan 30, 2022at ATLATL 129 − 121
Jan 7, 2022at LALLAL 134 − 118

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Nov 5, 2025vs SA118 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIA130 − 120W
Oct 31, 2025at MEM117 − 112W
Oct 29, 2025at MIN116 − 115W
Oct 27, 2025vs POR108 − 122L
Oct 26, 2025at SAC127 − 120W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIN128 − 110W
Oct 21, 2025vs GS109 − 119L
Apr 30, 2025vs MIN96 − 103L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 7, 2025vs TOR97 − 109L
Nov 4, 2025vs ORL127 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025at IND128 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025at BKN117 − 112W
Oct 27, 2025at CHI123 − 128L
Oct 25, 2025vs OKC100 − 117L
Oct 24, 2025at ORL111 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025vs TOR118 − 138L
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W