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Magic at Hawks

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final ORL 112 – ATL 127
← NBA / Nov 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL23243035112
ATL32323429127
Team box
ORL·ATL
36-83
field goals
40-72
11-34
3-pointers
13-30
29-33
free throws
34-42
41
rebounds
34
26
assists
23
19
turnovers
20
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paolo BancheroORL3722118
Zaccharie RisacherATL262141
Tristan da SilvaORL252042
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL322012
Dyson DanielsATL351866
Franz WagnerORL341852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +25
ORL +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 25 · ORL 2lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 1.2
Expected score
ATL 113.3 – 112.2 ORL
Expected total
225.5
MagicThe matchupHawks
+122Our fair odds−122
112.2Expected points113.3
−0.07Power rating−0.10
116.9Points / game115.1
116.3Allowed / game118.1
48.1FG%47.6
32.63P%32.9
45.9Rebounds / game43.0
3−4Season record3−4
4−6Last 106−4
Colin Castleton · Jamal Cain
Moritz WagnerOutTrae Young

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+12245%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−12255%————
SpreadATL by 1.2
ORLOrlando Magic+1.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.5
Over225.5our total————
Under225.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 1.2 expected
Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%
← ORL wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more44%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more30%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·ATL
Nov 1, 2025 at WSH
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at CLE
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 3, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · not with teamOut
ORLJamal Cain · not with teamOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayQuestionable
ATLJacob Toppin · g league - two-wayQuestionable
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
ORL·ATL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
116.9
points / game
115.1
116.3
points allowed / game
118.1
3−4
season record
3−4
1−2
home record
0−2
2−2
away record
3−2
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
48.1
FG%
47.6
32.6
3P%
32.9
45.9
rebounds / game
43.0
23.7
assists / game
28.4
16.7
turnovers / game
13.7
56.0
points in paint / game
56.9

Rating Trend

ORL · ATL · 8 days
Orlando MagicAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Oct 24, 2025at ORLATL 111 − 107
Apr 13, 2025at ATLATL 117 − 105
Apr 8, 2025at ORLORL 119 − 112
Feb 20, 2025at ATLORL 114 − 108
Feb 10, 2025at ORLATL 112 − 106
Feb 25, 2024at ATLATL 109 − 92
Jan 17, 2024at ATLATL 106 − 104
Jan 7, 2024at ORLORL 117 − 110
Nov 9, 2023at ORLATL 120 − 119
Dec 19, 2022at ATLATL 126 − 125

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Nov 1, 2025at WSH125 − 94W
Oct 30, 2025at CHA123 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at DET116 − 135L
Oct 27, 2025at PHI124 − 136L
Oct 25, 2025vs CHI98 − 110L
Oct 24, 2025vs ATL107 − 111L
Oct 22, 2025vs MIA125 − 121W
Apr 29, 2025at BOS89 − 120L
Apr 27, 2025vs BOS98 − 107L
Apr 25, 2025vs BOS95 − 93W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025at IND128 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025at BKN117 − 112W
Oct 27, 2025at CHI123 − 128L
Oct 25, 2025vs OKC100 − 117L
Oct 24, 2025at ORL111 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025vs TOR118 − 138L
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W
Apr 11, 2025at PHI124 − 110W
Apr 10, 2025at BKN133 − 109W