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Raptors at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Nov 7 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final TOR 109 – ATL 97
← NBA / Nov 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR26182936109
ATL2627242097
Team box
TOR·ATL
37-91
field goals
33-96
12-38
3-pointers
9-38
23-25
free throws
22-23
48
rebounds
54
23
assists
24
13
turnovers
19
44
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL332174
Brandon IngramTOR352064
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL302023
RJ BarrettTOR331954
Immanuel QuickleyTOR341856
Kristaps PorzingisATL301773

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +13
TOR +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 13 · TOR 12lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 36%, ATL 64% · Updated Nov 7, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 3.9
Expected score
ATL 121.4 – 117.5 TOR
Expected total
238.8
RaptorsThe matchupHawks
+177Our fair odds−177
117.5Expected points121.4
−0.45Power rating−0.10
120.5Points / game116.6
118.0Allowed / game117.4
50.1FG%48.6
39.03P%34.1
40.9Rebounds / game41.9
4−4Season record4−4
4−6Last 106−4
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jonathan MogboOut (4 each)Eli John Ndiaye · Jacob Toppin
Nikola Djurisic · Trae Young

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair36.1%63.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+17736%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−17764%————
SpreadATL by 3.9
TORToronto Raptors+3.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.8
Over238.8our total————
Under238.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 3.9 expected
Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%
← TOR wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more51%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more36%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.8 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·ATL
Nov 4, 2025 vs MIL
last game
Nov 4, 2025 vs ORL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · g league - two-wayOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · right elbow; sprainOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLLuke Kennard · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
TOR·ATL
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
120.5
points / game
116.6
118.0
points allowed / game
117.4
4−4
season record
4−4
2−2
home record
1−2
2−2
away record
3−2
W3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
50.1
FG%
48.6
39.0
3P%
34.1
40.9
rebounds / game
41.9
30.5
assists / game
27.8
15.0
turnovers / game
14.5
52.8
points in paint / game
55.5

Rating Trend

TOR · ATL · 11 days
Toronto RaptorsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Oct 22, 2025at ATLTOR 138 − 118
Jan 25, 2025at ATLTOR 117 − 94
Jan 23, 2025at ATLTOR 122 − 119
Dec 29, 2024at TORATL 136 − 107
Feb 23, 2024at ATLTOR 123 − 121
Jan 28, 2024at ATLATL 126 − 125
Dec 15, 2023at TORATL 125 − 104
Dec 13, 2023at TORTOR 135 − 128
Jan 14, 2023at TORATL 114 − 103
Nov 19, 2022at ATLATL 124 − 122

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Nov 4, 2025vs MIL128 − 100W
Nov 2, 2025vs MEM117 − 104W
Oct 31, 2025at CLE112 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025vs HOU121 − 139L
Oct 27, 2025at SA103 − 121L
Oct 26, 2025at DAL129 − 139L
Oct 24, 2025vs MIL116 − 122L
Oct 22, 2025at ATL138 − 118W
Apr 13, 2025at SA118 − 125L
Apr 11, 2025at DAL102 − 124L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 4, 2025vs ORL127 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025at IND128 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025at BKN117 − 112W
Oct 27, 2025at CHI123 − 128L
Oct 25, 2025vs OKC100 − 117L
Oct 24, 2025at ORL111 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025vs TOR118 − 138L
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W
Apr 11, 2025at PHI124 − 110W