bayesRatings

Jazz at Hornets

NBA · Sunday, Nov 2 · 5:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final UTAH 103 – CHA 126
← NBA / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH25233817103
CHA39323322126
Team box
UTAH·CHA
36-88
field goals
43-88
7-32
3-pointers
18-43
24-29
free throws
22-22
38
rebounds
46
27
assists
31
11
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Miles BridgesCHA332946
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH332973
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH332527
Kon KnueppelCHA352465
Moussa DiabateCHA2217120
Sion JamesCHA291553

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +31
UTAH +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 31 · UTAH 4lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 48%, CHA 52% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
UTAH by 1.2
Expected score
UTAH 115.0 – 113.8 CHA
Expected total
228.8
JazzThe matchupHornets
+106Our fair odds−106
115.0Expected points113.8
−0.83Power rating−1.00
120.2Points / game120.8
120.2Allowed / game124.0
45.4FG%47.8
33.43P%38.3
50.8Rebounds / game45.7
2−3Season record2−4
3−7Last 102−8
Georges Niang · Isaiah Collier
John Tonje · Oscar Tshiebwe
Walker KesslerOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · Brandon Miller
Drew Peterson · Grant Williams
Josh Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · CHA chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+10648%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−10652%————
SpreadUTAH by 1.2
UTAHUtah Jazz−1.2our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.8
Over228.8our total————
Under228.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Utah Jazz by 1.2 expected
Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byCHA wins by →
Utah Jazz wins by 5 or more43%
Utah Jazz wins by 10 or more29%
Utah Jazz wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

228.8 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·CHA
Oct 31, 2025 at PHX
last game
Nov 1, 2025 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 2, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · g league - on assignmentOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; bursitisOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHABrandon Miller · left shoulder; subluxationOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHALaMelo Ball · right ankle; impingementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
UTAH·CHA
−0.83
rating (0 = average)
−1.00
120.2
points / game
120.8
120.2
points allowed / game
124.0
2−3
season record
2−4
2−1
home record
1−2
0−2
away record
1−2
L2
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
2−8
45.4
FG%
47.8
33.4
3P%
38.3
50.8
rebounds / game
45.7
28.6
assists / game
27.7
19.0
turnovers / game
16.5
48.4
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

UTAH · CHA · 6 days
Utah JazzCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 4−4
Mar 31, 2025at CHACHA 110 − 106
Jan 15, 2025at UTAHCHA 117 − 112
Feb 22, 2024at UTAHCHA 115 − 107
Jan 27, 2024at CHAUTAH 134 − 122
Mar 11, 2023at CHAUTAH 119 − 111
Jan 23, 2023at UTAHUTAH 120 − 102
Mar 25, 2022at CHACHA 107 − 101
Dec 20, 2021at UTAHUTAH 112 − 102

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 31, 2025at PHX96 − 118L
Oct 29, 2025vs POR134 − 136L
Oct 27, 2025vs PHX138 − 134W
Oct 24, 2025at SAC104 − 105L
Oct 22, 2025vs LAC129 − 108W
Apr 13, 2025at MIN105 − 116L
Apr 11, 2025vs OKC111 − 145L
Apr 9, 2025vs POR133 − 126W
Apr 6, 2025at ATL134 − 147L
Apr 4, 2025at IND112 − 140L

CHA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Nov 1, 2025vs MIN105 − 122L
Oct 30, 2025vs ORL107 − 123L
Oct 28, 2025at MIA117 − 144L
Oct 26, 2025at WSH139 − 113W
Oct 25, 2025at PHI121 − 125L
Oct 22, 2025vs BKN136 − 117W
Apr 13, 2025at BOS86 − 93L
Apr 11, 2025at BOS94 − 130L
Apr 9, 2025at TOR96 − 126L
Apr 8, 2025vs MEM100 − 124L