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Lakers at Thunder

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 12 · 8:47 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final LAL 92 – OKC 121
← NBA / Nov 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL1820262892
OKC30403021121
Team box
LAL·OKC
31-77
field goals
44-88
11-35
3-pointers
12-39
19-28
free throws
21-23
42
rebounds
42
19
assists
28
20
turnovers
11
30
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC293059
Isaiah JoeOKC352125
Luka DoncicLAL331977
Dalton KnechtLAL191621
Ajay MitchellOKC261433
Austin ReavesLAL301353

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +37
LAL +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 37 · LAL 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 21%, OKC 79% · Updated Nov 12, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 13.1
Expected score
OKC 120.3 – 107.2 LAL
Expected total
227.5
LakersThe matchupThunder
+372Our fair odds−372
107.2Expected points120.3
+0.30Power rating+1.37
118.1Points / game122.7
116.5Allowed / game108.2
51.5FG%47.6
33.93P%34.1
40.2Rebounds / game47.4
8−3Season record11−1
8−2Last 109−1
Adou Thiero · Gabe Vincent
LeBron JamesOutAaron Wiggins · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Luguentz Dort
Nikola Topic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · OKC chance
Our model fair21.2%78.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+37221%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−37279%————
SpreadOKC by 13.1
LALLos Angeles Lakers+13.1our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−13.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.5
Over227.5our total————
Under227.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 13.1 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 53 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 52 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 51 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 50 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← LAL wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more74%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more60%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more44%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.5 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·OKC
Nov 10, 2025 at CHA
last game
Nov 11, 2025 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 12, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALGabe Vincent · left ankle; sprainOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right upper trap; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
LAL·OKC
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+1.37
118.1
points / game
122.7
116.5
points allowed / game
108.2
8−3
season record
11−1
3−2
home record
5−0
5−1
away record
6−1
W1
streak
W3
8−2
last 10
9−1
51.5
FG%
47.6
33.9
3P%
34.1
40.2
rebounds / game
47.4
26.3
assists / game
25.2
16.5
turnovers / game
12.4
53.6
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

LAL · OKC · 16 days
Los Angeles LakersOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 4−6
Apr 8, 2025at OKCOKC 136 − 120
Apr 6, 2025at OKCLAL 126 − 99
Nov 29, 2024at LALOKC 101 − 93
Mar 4, 2024at LALLAL 116 − 104
Jan 15, 2024at LALLAL 112 − 105
Dec 23, 2023at OKCLAL 129 − 120
Nov 30, 2023at OKCOKC 133 − 110
Mar 24, 2023at LALLAL 116 − 111
Mar 1, 2023at OKCLAL 123 − 117
Feb 7, 2023at LALOKC 133 − 130

LAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 10, 2025at CHA121 − 111W
Nov 8, 2025at ATL102 − 122L
Nov 5, 2025vs SA118 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIA130 − 120W
Oct 31, 2025at MEM117 − 112W
Oct 29, 2025at MIN116 − 115W
Oct 27, 2025vs POR108 − 122L
Oct 26, 2025at SAC127 − 120W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIN128 − 110W

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W
Nov 5, 2025at POR119 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025at LAC126 − 107W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W