bayesRatings

Bucks at Hornets

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final MIL 100 – CHA 111
← NBA / Nov 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL27232228100
CHA35242428111
Team box
MIL·CHA
40-88
field goals
38-86
12-30
3-pointers
12-40
8-13
free throws
23-27
34
rebounds
50
29
assists
27
9
turnovers
16
48
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ryan RollinsMIL322556
Myles TurnerMIL292132
Miles BridgesCHA332066
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA271790
Collin SextonCHA321658
Kon KnueppelCHA341661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +22
MIL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 22 · MIL 3lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 75%, CHA 25% · Updated Nov 12, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 9.6
Expected score
MIL 118.3 – 108.7 CHA
Expected total
227.0
BucksThe matchupHornets
−292Our fair odds+292
118.3Expected points108.7
+0.26Power rating−1.10
119.6Points / game118.2
118.1Allowed / game121.0
50.5FG%47.4
40.13P%37.9
41.0Rebounds / game46.3
7−4Season record3−7
6−4Last 103−7
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr. · Taurean PrinceOutBrandon Miller · Drew Peterson
Grant Williams · Josh Green
LaMelo Ball

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHA chance
Our model fair74.5%25.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−29275%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+29225%————
SpreadMIL by 9.6
MILMilwaukee Bucks−9.6our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+9.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.0
Over227.0our total————
Under227.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 9.6 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%
← MIL wins byCHA wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more67%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more51%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.548%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHA
Nov 10, 2025 at DAL
last game
Nov 10, 2025 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 12, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; patellarOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · tendinopathy right knee; meniscus surgeryOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; herniated diskOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHABrandon Miller · left shoulder; subluxationOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHALaMelo Ball · right ankle; impingementOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
MIL·CHA
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−1.10
119.6
points / game
118.2
118.1
points allowed / game
121.0
7−4
season record
3−7
4−2
home record
2−3
3−2
away record
1−4
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
50.5
FG%
47.4
40.1
3P%
37.9
41.0
rebounds / game
46.3
26.3
assists / game
26.7
14.1
turnovers / game
17.5
51.1
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

MIL · CHA · 16 days
Milwaukee BucksCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 2−8
Feb 5, 2025at CHAMIL 112 − 102
Nov 23, 2024at MILMIL 125 − 119
Nov 16, 2024at CHACHA 115 − 114
Feb 29, 2024at CHAMIL 111 − 99
Feb 27, 2024at MILMIL 123 − 85
Feb 9, 2024at MILMIL 120 − 84
Nov 17, 2023at CHAMIL 130 − 99
Jan 31, 2023at MILMIL 124 − 115
Jan 6, 2023at MILCHA 138 − 109
Dec 3, 2022at CHAMIL 105 − 96

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 10, 2025at DAL116 − 114W
Nov 9, 2025vs HOU115 − 122L
Nov 7, 2025vs CHI126 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at TOR100 − 128L
Nov 3, 2025at IND117 − 115W
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W

CHA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 10, 2025vs LAL111 − 121L
Nov 7, 2025at MIA108 − 126L
Nov 4, 2025at NO112 − 116L
Nov 2, 2025vs UTAH126 − 103W
Nov 1, 2025vs MIN105 − 122L
Oct 30, 2025vs ORL107 − 123L
Oct 28, 2025at MIA117 − 144L
Oct 26, 2025at WSH139 − 113W
Oct 25, 2025at PHI121 − 125L
Oct 22, 2025vs BKN136 − 117W