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Bucks at Mavericks

NBA · Monday, Nov 10 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final MIL 116 – DAL 114
← NBA / Nov 10, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL27262637116
DAL31263126114
Team box
MIL·DAL
41-91
field goals
37-89
14-36
3-pointers
9-39
20-25
free throws
31-41
44
rebounds
52
24
assists
25
13
turnovers
15
52
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL373086
Cooper FlaggDAL352694
Kyle KuzmaMIL322652
Brandon WilliamsDAL331963
P.J. WashingtonDAL221671
Myles TurnerMIL281472

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +13
MIL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 13 · MIL 9lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 55%, DAL 45% · Updated Nov 10, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 2.0
Expected score
MIL 116.2 – 114.2 DAL
Expected total
230.3
BucksThe matchupMavericks
−121Our fair odds+121
116.2Expected points114.2
+0.31Power rating−0.11
120.0Points / game106.5
118.5Allowed / game113.3
51.0FG%44.7
40.23P%30.5
40.7Rebounds / game43.9
6−4Season record3−7
6−4Last 103−7
Alex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean PrinceOutDante Exum · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · DAL chance
Our model fair54.8%45.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−12155%————
DALDallas Mavericks+12145%————
SpreadMIL by 2.0
MILMilwaukee Bucks−2our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.3
Over230.3our total————
Under230.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 2.0 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%
← MIL wins byDAL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more45%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more31%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·DAL
Nov 9, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Nov 8, 2025 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 10, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus surgeryOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; herniated diskOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; patellar tendinopathyProbable
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; sprainDoubtful
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
MIL·DAL
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
120.0
points / game
106.5
118.5
points allowed / game
113.3
6−4
season record
3−7
4−2
home record
2−4
2−2
away record
1−3
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
51.0
FG%
44.7
40.2
3P%
30.5
40.7
rebounds / game
43.9
26.5
assists / game
23.8
14.2
turnovers / game
16.1
51.0
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

MIL · DAL · 14 days
Milwaukee BucksDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DAL 1−7
Mar 5, 2025at MILMIL 137 − 107
Mar 1, 2025at DALMIL 132 − 117
Feb 3, 2024at DALMIL 129 − 117
Nov 18, 2023at MILMIL 132 − 125
Dec 9, 2022at DALMIL 106 − 105
Nov 27, 2022at MILMIL 124 − 115
Apr 3, 2022at MILDAL 118 − 112
Dec 23, 2021at DALMIL 102 − 95

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 9, 2025vs HOU115 − 122L
Nov 7, 2025vs CHI126 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at TOR100 − 128L
Nov 3, 2025at IND117 − 115W
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 8, 2025at WSH111 − 105W
Nov 7, 2025at MEM104 − 118L
Nov 5, 2025vs NO99 − 101L
Nov 3, 2025at HOU102 − 110L
Nov 1, 2025at DET110 − 122L
Oct 29, 2025vs IND107 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025vs OKC94 − 101L
Oct 26, 2025vs TOR139 − 129W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L
Oct 22, 2025vs SA92 − 125L