bayesRatings

Magic at Rockets

NBA · Sunday, Nov 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final ORL 113 – HOU 117
← NBA / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
ORL3025252211113
HOU2323312515117
Team box
ORL·HOU
38-91
field goals
42-100
12-37
3-pointers
8-20
25-34
free throws
25-29
38
rebounds
60
21
assists
19
8
turnovers
15
46
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU453556
Alperen SengunHOU4530128
Franz WagnerORL432954
Desmond BaneORL442644
Anthony BlackORL361834
Reed SheppardHOU291672

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +14
ORL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: HOU 4 · ORL 14lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 30%, HOU 70% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 8.7
Expected score
HOU 111.6 – 102.9 ORL
Expected total
214.5
MagicThe matchupRockets
+230Our fair odds−230
102.9Expected points111.6
−0.05Power rating+0.54
115.7Points / game125.5
113.8Allowed / game113.3
47.3FG%49.9
33.23P%43.3
45.6Rebounds / game49.4
7−6Season record8−3
6−4Last 108−2
Colin Castleton · Jalen Suggs
Moritz Wagner · Paolo BancheroOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon Harris
Tari Eason

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair30.3%69.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+23030%————
HOUHouston Rockets−23070%————
SpreadHOU by 8.7
ORLOrlando Magic+8.7our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−8.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 214.5
Over214.5our total————
Under214.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 8.7 expected
Orlando Magic by 51 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 50 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%
← ORL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more63%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more48%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

214.5 expected
171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: 1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 2%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: <1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 204.570%
Total over 214.549%
Total over 224.530%
Total from 205 to 22440%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·HOU
Nov 14, 2025 vs BKN
last game
Nov 14, 2025 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 16, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJalen Suggs · right groin; soreOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLPaolo Banchero · left groin; strainOut
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
ORL·HOU
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
115.7
points / game
125.5
113.8
points allowed / game
113.3
7−6
season record
8−3
4−3
home record
4−1
3−3
away record
4−2
W3
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
8−2
47.3
FG%
49.9
33.2
3P%
43.3
45.6
rebounds / game
49.4
24.4
assists / game
26.5
16.5
turnovers / game
16.0
51.2
points in paint / game
53.1

Rating Trend

ORL · HOU · 20 days
Orlando MagicHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · HOU 5−3
Mar 19, 2025at ORLHOU 116 − 108
Mar 10, 2025at HOUHOU 97 − 84
Apr 9, 2024at HOUHOU 118 − 106
Oct 25, 2023at ORLORL 116 − 86
Dec 21, 2022at HOUORL 116 − 110
Nov 7, 2022at ORLHOU 134 − 127
Feb 25, 2022at ORLORL 119 − 111
Dec 3, 2021at HOUHOU 118 − 116

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Nov 14, 2025vs BKN105 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at NY124 − 107W
Nov 10, 2025vs POR115 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025vs BOS107 − 111L
Nov 7, 2025vs BOS123 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at ATL112 − 127L
Nov 1, 2025at WSH125 − 94W
Oct 30, 2025at CHA123 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at DET116 − 135L
Oct 27, 2025at PHI124 − 136L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Nov 14, 2025vs POR140 − 116W
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025at MIL122 − 115W
Nov 7, 2025at SA110 − 121L
Nov 5, 2025at MEM124 − 109W
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L