bayesRatings

Celtics at Magic

NBA · Sunday, Nov 9 · 5:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final BOS 111 – ORL 107
← NBA / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS30242433111
ORL33212627107
Team box
BOS·ORL
40-85
field goals
35-78
13-33
3-pointers
7-29
18-25
free throws
30-32
41
rebounds
42
22
assists
21
14
turnovers
17
42
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paolo BancheroORL352864
Jaylen BrownBOS342751
Anfernee SimonsBOS232513
Derrick WhiteBOS362134
Jalen SuggsORL292084
Franz WagnerORL372093

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +12
BOS +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 12 · BOS 11lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 64%, ORL 36% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 4.0
Expected score
BOS 105.2 – 101.2 ORL
Expected total
206.4
CelticsThe matchupMagic
−180Our fair odds+180
105.2Expected points101.2
+0.77Power rating−0.07
113.0Points / game117.0
110.7Allowed / game116.8
44.8FG%47.8
32.33P%34.1
42.5Rebounds / game45.1
4−6Season record4−5
4−6Last 104−6
Amari Williams · Jayson Tatum
Max ShulgaOutColin Castleton · Jamal Cain
Moritz Wagner · Orlando Robinson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ORL chance
Our model fair64.3%35.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−18064%————
ORLOrlando Magic+18036%————
SpreadBOS by 4.0
BOSBoston Celtics−4our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic+4our margin————
Totalwe expect 206.4
Over206.4our total————
Under206.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 4.0 expected
Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%
← BOS wins byORL wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more51%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more36%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

206.4 expected
169 points: <1%170 points: <1%171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: 1%174 points: 1%175 points: 1%176 points: 1%177 points: 1%178 points: 1%179 points: 1%180 points: 1%181 points: 1%182 points: 1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 2%190 points: 2%191 points: 2%192 points: 2%193 points: 2%194 points: 2%195 points: 2%196 points: 2%197 points: 2%198 points: 2%199 points: 2%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: <1%239 points: <1%240 points: <1%241 points: <1%242 points: <1%243 points: <1%244 points: <1%245 points: <1%246 points: <1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 196.570%
Total over 206.549%
Total over 216.528%
Total from 197 to 21641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FJosh Minottstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ORL
Nov 7, 2025 at ORL
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 8, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - two-wayOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJamal Cain · g league - two-wayOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLOrlando Robinson · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
BOS·ORL
+0.77
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
113.0
points / game
117.0
110.7
points allowed / game
116.8
4−6
season record
4−5
2−3
home record
2−2
2−3
away record
2−3
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
44.8
FG%
47.8
32.3
3P%
34.1
42.5
rebounds / game
45.1
23.4
assists / game
24.4
11.0
turnovers / game
16.8
41.6
points in paint / game
53.6

Rating Trend

BOS · ORL · 13 days
Boston CelticsOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 4−6
Nov 7, 2025at ORLORL 123 − 110
Apr 29, 2025at BOSBOS 120 − 89post
Apr 27, 2025at ORLBOS 107 − 98post
Apr 25, 2025at ORLORL 95 − 93post
Apr 23, 2025at BOSBOS 109 − 100post
Apr 20, 2025at BOSBOS 103 − 86post
Apr 9, 2025at ORLORL 96 − 76
Jan 17, 2025at BOSBOS 121 − 94
Dec 23, 2024at ORLORL 108 − 104
Dec 17, 2023at BOSBOS 114 − 97

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 7, 2025at ORL110 − 123L
Nov 5, 2025vs WSH136 − 107W
Nov 3, 2025vs UTAH103 − 105L
Nov 1, 2025vs HOU101 − 128L
Oct 31, 2025at PHI109 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025vs CLE125 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025at NO122 − 90W
Oct 26, 2025at DET113 − 119L
Oct 24, 2025at NY95 − 105L
Oct 22, 2025vs PHI116 − 117L

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 7, 2025vs BOS123 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at ATL112 − 127L
Nov 1, 2025at WSH125 − 94W
Oct 30, 2025at CHA123 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at DET116 − 135L
Oct 27, 2025at PHI124 − 136L
Oct 25, 2025vs CHI98 − 110L
Oct 24, 2025vs ATL107 − 111L
Oct 22, 2025vs MIA125 − 121W
Apr 29, 2025at BOS89 − 120L