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Rockets at Cavaliers

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 19 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final HOU 114 – CLE 104
← NBA / Nov 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU33241740114
CLE19213034104
Team box
HOU·CLE
41-90
field goals
36-81
9-24
3-pointers
12-39
23-27
free throws
20-32
51
rebounds
39
23
assists
20
13
turnovers
12
52
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU3828117
De'Andre HunterCLE312542
Donovan MitchellCLE342132
Kevin DurantHOU372033
Evan MobleyCLE361860
Aaron HolidayHOU191800

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +22
HOU +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 2 · HOU 22lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 41%, CLE 59% · Updated Nov 19, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 4.6
Expected score
CLE 117.9 – 113.3 HOU
Expected total
231.2
RocketsThe matchupCavaliers
+147Our fair odds−147
113.3Expected points117.9
+0.59Power rating+0.72
124.8Points / game120.9
113.2Allowed / game116.2
49.2FG%46.2
43.03P%35.1
50.2Rebounds / game43.9
9−3Season record10−5
9−1Last 107−3
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon Harris
Tari EasonOutChris Livingston · Darius Garland
Jaylon Tyson · Max Strus

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CLE chance
Our model fair40.5%59.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+14741%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−14759%————
SpreadCLE by 4.6
HOUHouston Rockets+4.6our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.2
Over231.2our total————
Under231.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 4.6 expected
Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%
← HOU wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more53%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more37%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.2 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CSteven Adamsstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
FNae'Qwan Tomlinstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CLE
Nov 16, 2025 vs ORL
last game
Nov 17, 2025 vs MIL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 19, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right knee; tendinopathyQuestionable
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDarius Garland · left great toe; injury managementOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · head; concussionOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
HOU·CLE
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.72
124.8
points / game
120.9
113.2
points allowed / game
116.2
9−3
season record
10−5
5−1
home record
6−2
4−2
away record
4−3
W4
streak
W2
9−1
last 10
7−3
49.2
FG%
46.2
43.0
3P%
35.1
50.2
rebounds / game
43.9
25.8
assists / game
27.5
15.9
turnovers / game
14.9
53.5
points in paint / game
46.5

Rating Trend

HOU · CLE · 23 days
Houston RocketsCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 4−4
Jan 25, 2025at CLEHOU 135 − 131
Jan 22, 2025at HOUHOU 109 − 108
Mar 16, 2024at HOUHOU 117 − 103
Dec 18, 2023at CLECLE 135 − 130
Mar 26, 2023at CLECLE 108 − 91
Jan 26, 2023at HOUCLE 113 − 95
Feb 2, 2022at HOUHOU 115 − 104
Dec 15, 2021at CLECLE 124 − 89

HOU · Last 10

9−1 · streak W4
Nov 16, 2025vs ORL117 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025vs POR140 − 116W
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025at MIL122 − 115W
Nov 7, 2025at SA110 − 121L
Nov 5, 2025at MEM124 − 109W
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 17, 2025vs MIL118 − 106W
Nov 15, 2025vs MEM108 − 100W
Nov 13, 2025vs TOR113 − 126L
Nov 12, 2025at MIA130 − 116W
Nov 10, 2025at MIA138 − 140L
Nov 8, 2025vs CHI128 − 122W
Nov 7, 2025at WSH148 − 115W
Nov 5, 2025vs PHI132 − 121W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL117 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs TOR101 − 112L