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Cavaliers at Heat

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 12 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final CLE 130 – MIA 116
← NBA / Nov 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE29372737130
MIA38312819116
Team box
CLE·MIA
45-104
field goals
45-94
14-47
3-pointers
15-37
26-31
free throws
11-13
49
rebounds
44
32
assists
29
13
turnovers
21
58
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jarrett AllenCLE2730102
Norman PowellMIA332725
De'Andre HunterCLE282162
Craig Porter Jr.CLE321949
Andrew WigginsMIA331796
Davion MitchellMIA341634

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +18
CLE +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 14 · CLE 18lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 61%, MIA 39% · Updated Nov 12, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 3.4
Expected score
CLE 116.5 – 113.0 MIA
Expected total
229.5
CavaliersThe matchupHeat
−155Our fair odds+155
116.5Expected points113.0
+0.73Power rating+0.02
122.3Points / game125.5
117.7Allowed / game119.8
45.7FG%49.5
36.13P%37.5
43.5Rebounds / game44.5
7−4Season record7−4
7−3Last 107−3
Darius Garland · Donovan Mitchell
Evan Mobley · Jaylon Tyson
Max StrusOut (5 each)Bam Adebayo · Jahmir Young
Myron Gardner · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MIA chance
Our model fair60.8%39.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−15561%————
MIAMiami Heat+15539%————
SpreadCLE by 3.4
CLECleveland Cavaliers−3.4our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.5
Over229.5our total————
Under229.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 3.4 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%
← CLE wins byMIA wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more49%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more34%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.5 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GLonzo Ballstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
FDean Wadestarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MIA
Nov 10, 2025 at MIA
last game
Nov 10, 2025 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 11, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDarius Garland · left great toe; injury managementOut
CLEDonovan Mitchell · restOut
CLEEvan Mobley · restOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · head; concussionOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · left knee; contusionQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIABam Adebayo · left big toe; sprainOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
CLE·MIA
+0.73
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
122.3
points / game
125.5
117.7
points allowed / game
119.8
7−4
season record
7−4
4−1
home record
5−0
3−3
away record
2−4
L1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
7−3
45.7
FG%
49.5
36.1
3P%
37.5
43.5
rebounds / game
44.5
27.7
assists / game
30.5
14.5
turnovers / game
14.8
44.7
points in paint / game
59.1

Rating Trend

CLE · MIA · 16 days
Cleveland CavaliersMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Nov 10, 2025at MIAMIA 140 − 138
Apr 28, 2025at MIACLE 138 − 83post
Apr 26, 2025at MIACLE 124 − 87post
Apr 23, 2025at CLECLE 121 − 112post
Apr 20, 2025at CLECLE 121 − 100post
Mar 5, 2025at CLECLE 112 − 107
Jan 29, 2025at MIACLE 126 − 106
Dec 8, 2024at MIAMIA 122 − 113
Mar 24, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 84
Mar 20, 2024at CLEMIA 107 − 104

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 10, 2025at MIA138 − 140L
Nov 8, 2025vs CHI128 − 122W
Nov 7, 2025at WSH148 − 115W
Nov 5, 2025vs PHI132 − 121W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL117 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs TOR101 − 112L
Oct 29, 2025at BOS105 − 125L
Oct 27, 2025at DET116 − 95W
Oct 26, 2025vs MIL118 − 113W
Oct 24, 2025at BKN131 − 124W

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W
Nov 5, 2025at DEN112 − 122L
Nov 3, 2025at LAC120 − 119W
Nov 2, 2025at LAL120 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025at SA101 − 107L
Oct 28, 2025vs CHA144 − 117W
Oct 26, 2025vs NY115 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W