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Bucks at Cavaliers

NBA · Monday, Nov 17 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final MIL 106 – CLE 118
← NBA / Nov 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL33243118106
CLE26333326118
Team box
MIL·CLE
39-93
field goals
44-79
17-36
3-pointers
15-35
11-15
free throws
15-21
34
rebounds
45
26
assists
25
15
turnovers
18
34
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE363757
Ryan RollinsMIL292435
Sam MerrillCLE282050
Myles TurnerMIL371572
Evan MobleyCLE361466
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL131454

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +14
MIL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 14 · MIL 14lead changes: 17

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 33%, CLE 67% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 6.9
Expected score
CLE 121.5 – 114.5 MIL
Expected total
236.0
BucksThe matchupCavaliers
+205Our fair odds−205
114.5Expected points121.5
+0.26Power rating+0.73
118.4Points / game121.1
118.8Allowed / game116.9
50.4FG%45.5
41.33P%34.5
40.2Rebounds / game43.8
8−6Season record9−5
5−5Last 106−4
Alex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean PrinceOutChris Livingston · Darius Garland
Jaylon Tyson · Luke Travers
Max Strus

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair32.8%67.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+20533%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−20567%————
SpreadCLE by 6.9
MILMilwaukee Bucks+6.9our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.0
Over236.0our total————
Under236.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 6.9 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%
← MIL wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more59%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more43%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.0 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.529%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CLE
Nov 15, 2025 vs LAL
last game
Nov 15, 2025 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 17, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus surgeryOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; patellar tendinopathyProbable
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · management g league - two-wayOut
CLEDarius Garland · left great toe; injuryOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · head; concussionOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
MIL·CLE
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.73
118.4
points / game
121.1
118.8
points allowed / game
116.9
8−6
season record
9−5
5−3
home record
5−2
3−3
away record
4−3
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
50.4
FG%
45.5
41.3
3P%
34.5
40.2
rebounds / game
43.8
26.8
assists / game
27.6
14.5
turnovers / game
14.6
49.9
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

MIL · CLE · 21 days
Milwaukee BucksCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 8−2
Oct 26, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 113
Mar 9, 2025at MILCLE 112 − 100
Dec 20, 2024at CLECLE 124 − 101
Nov 4, 2024at CLECLE 116 − 114
Nov 2, 2024at MILCLE 114 − 113
Jan 26, 2024at MILCLE 112 − 100
Jan 24, 2024at MILMIL 126 − 116
Jan 17, 2024at CLECLE 135 − 95
Dec 29, 2023at CLEMIL 119 − 111
Jan 21, 2023at CLECLE 114 − 102

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 15, 2025vs LAL95 − 119L
Nov 14, 2025vs CHA147 − 134W
Nov 12, 2025at CHA100 − 111L
Nov 10, 2025at DAL116 − 114W
Nov 9, 2025vs HOU115 − 122L
Nov 7, 2025vs CHI126 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at TOR100 − 128L
Nov 3, 2025at IND117 − 115W
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 15, 2025vs MEM108 − 100W
Nov 13, 2025vs TOR113 − 126L
Nov 12, 2025at MIA130 − 116W
Nov 10, 2025at MIA138 − 140L
Nov 8, 2025vs CHI128 − 122W
Nov 7, 2025at WSH148 − 115W
Nov 5, 2025vs PHI132 − 121W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL117 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs TOR101 − 112L
Oct 29, 2025at BOS105 − 125L