bayesRatings

Lakers at Bucks

NBA · Saturday, Nov 15 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final LAL 119 – MIL 95
← NBA / Nov 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL30352727119
MIL1816382395
Team box
LAL·MIL
38-77
field goals
32-80
13-33
3-pointers
15-39
30-33
free throws
16-24
47
rebounds
39
23
assists
20
17
turnovers
17
38
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL384196
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3232105
Austin ReavesLAL362568
Deandre AytonLAL2820100
AJ GreenMIL251530
Gary Trent Jr.MIL241301

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +31
LAL +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 1 · LAL 31lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 44%, MIL 56% · Updated Nov 15, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 2.3
Expected score
MIL 117.0 – 114.6 LAL
Expected total
231.6
LakersThe matchupBucks
+125Our fair odds−125
114.6Expected points117.0
+0.30Power rating+0.26
116.1Points / game120.2
115.9Allowed / game118.8
50.6FG%51.2
33.33P%41.5
40.7Rebounds / game40.3
9−4Season record8−5
7−3Last 106−4
Gabe Vincent · LeBron James
Rui HachimuraOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Pete Nance · Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+12544%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−12556%————
SpreadMIL by 2.3
LALLos Angeles Lakers+2.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.6
Over231.6our total————
Under231.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 2.3 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%
← LAL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more47%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more32%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.6 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
GBronny Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·MIL
Nov 14, 2025 at NO
last game
Nov 14, 2025 vs CHA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALGabe Vincent · left ankle; sprainOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
LALRui Hachimura · left calf; sorenessOut
LALMarcus Smart · viral illness; -Questionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus surgeryOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; patellar tendinopathyProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
LAL·MIL
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
116.1
points / game
120.2
115.9
points allowed / game
118.8
9−4
season record
8−5
3−2
home record
5−2
6−2
away record
3−3
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
50.6
FG%
51.2
33.3
3P%
41.5
40.7
rebounds / game
40.3
25.8
assists / game
27.3
16.9
turnovers / game
14.3
52.3
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

LAL · MIL · 19 days
Los Angeles LakersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIL 5−3
Mar 20, 2025at LALMIL 118 − 89
Mar 13, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 106
Mar 26, 2024at MILLAL 128 − 124
Mar 8, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 122
Feb 9, 2023at LALMIL 115 − 106
Dec 2, 2022at MILLAL 133 − 129
Feb 8, 2022at LALMIL 131 − 116
Nov 17, 2021at MILMIL 109 − 102

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 14, 2025at NO118 − 104W
Nov 12, 2025at OKC92 − 121L
Nov 10, 2025at CHA121 − 111W
Nov 8, 2025at ATL102 − 122L
Nov 5, 2025vs SA118 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIA130 − 120W
Oct 31, 2025at MEM117 − 112W
Oct 29, 2025at MIN116 − 115W
Oct 27, 2025vs POR108 − 122L

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 14, 2025vs CHA147 − 134W
Nov 12, 2025at CHA100 − 111L
Nov 10, 2025at DAL116 − 114W
Nov 9, 2025vs HOU115 − 122L
Nov 7, 2025vs CHI126 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at TOR100 − 128L
Nov 3, 2025at IND117 − 115W
Nov 1, 2025vs SAC133 − 135L
Oct 30, 2025vs GS120 − 110W
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W