bayesRatings

Warriors at Magic

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 18 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final GS 113 – ORL 121
← NBA / Nov 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS32282528113
ORL36312628121
Team box
GS·ORL
39-78
field goals
43-85
13-36
3-pointers
8-32
22-28
free throws
27-29
36
rebounds
43
26
assists
28
18
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS343439
Jimmy Butler IIIGS383374
Desmond BaneORL392365
Anthony BlackORL332142
Franz WagnerORL361883
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL3517122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +15
GS +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 15 · GS 4lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 53%, ORL 47% · Updated Nov 18, 2025

Expected margin
ORL by 0.2
Expected score
ORL 106.2 – 106.0 GS
Expected total
212.2
WarriorsThe matchupMagic
−113Our fair odds+113
106.0Expected points106.2
+0.39Power rating+0.00
115.7Points / game115.5
114.0Allowed / game114.0
45.4FG%46.9
37.53P%33.1
42.0Rebounds / game45.1
9−6Season record7−7
5−5Last 106−4
De'Anthony Melton · Jonathan KumingaOutColin Castleton · Moritz Wagner
Orlando Robinson · Paolo Banchero

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · ORL chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−11353%————
ORLOrlando Magic+11347%————
SpreadORL by 0.2
GSGolden State Warriors+0.2our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 212.2
Over212.2our total————
Under212.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 0.2 expected
Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%
← GS wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more41%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more27%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

212.2 expected
170 points: <1%171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: 1%180 points: 1%181 points: 1%182 points: 1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 2%197 points: 2%198 points: 2%199 points: 2%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: <1%245 points: <1%246 points: <1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 202.569%
Total over 212.549%
Total over 222.529%
Total from 203 to 22240%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·ORL
Nov 16, 2025 at NO
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 17, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral knee; patellar tendonitisOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLOrlando Robinson · g league - two-wayOut
ORLPaolo Banchero · left groin; strainOut
ORLJalen Suggs · right groin; soreQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
GS·ORL
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
115.7
points / game
115.5
114.0
points allowed / game
114.0
9−6
season record
7−7
5−0
home record
4−3
4−6
away record
3−4
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
45.4
FG%
46.9
37.5
3P%
33.1
42.0
rebounds / game
45.1
27.3
assists / game
24.1
16.7
turnovers / game
15.9
39.7
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

GS · ORL · 22 days
Golden State WarriorsOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ORL 3−5
Feb 27, 2025at ORLGS 121 − 115
Feb 3, 2025at GSGS 104 − 99
Mar 27, 2024at ORLGS 101 − 93
Jan 2, 2024at GSGS 121 − 115
Jan 7, 2023at GSORL 115 − 101
Nov 3, 2022at ORLORL 130 − 129
Mar 22, 2022at ORLORL 94 − 90
Dec 6, 2021at GSGS 126 − 95

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Nov 16, 2025at NO124 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 16, 2025at HOU113 − 117L
Nov 14, 2025vs BKN105 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at NY124 − 107W
Nov 10, 2025vs POR115 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025vs BOS107 − 111L
Nov 7, 2025vs BOS123 − 110W
Nov 4, 2025at ATL112 − 127L
Nov 1, 2025at WSH125 − 94W
Oct 30, 2025at CHA123 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at DET116 − 135L