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Warriors at Heat

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 19 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final GS 96 – MIA 110
← NBA / Nov 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS2025292296
MIA29202338110
Team box
GS·MIA
34-95
field goals
39-96
13-49
3-pointers
13-35
15-20
free throws
19-26
62
rebounds
52
24
assists
30
23
turnovers
14
40
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Norman PowellMIA282563
Brandin PodziemskiGS342082
Bam AdebayoMIA292073
Quinten PostGS261962
Buddy HieldGS311863
Andrew WigginsMIA341761

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +16
GS +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 16 · GS 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 53%, MIA 47% · Updated Nov 19, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 0.3
Expected score
GS 112.0 – 111.7 MIA
Expected total
223.7
WarriorsThe matchupHeat
−113Our fair odds+113
112.0Expected points111.7
+0.39Power rating+0.01
115.5Points / game124.6
114.4Allowed / game121.5
45.7FG%48.8
37.43P%38.4
41.6Rebounds / game44.2
9−7Season record8−6
5−5Last 105−5
Al Horford · De'Anthony Melton
Draymond Green · Jimmy Butler III
Jonathan KumingaOut (5 each)Kasparas Jakucionis · Myron Gardner
Nikola Jovic · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · MIA chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−11353%————
MIAMiami Heat+11347%————
SpreadGS by 0.3
GSGolden State Warriors−0.3our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.7
Over223.7our total————
Under223.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.3 expected
Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%
← GS wins byMIA wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more41%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more27%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.7 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FTrayce Jackson-Davisstarted
FGui Santosstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·MIA
Nov 18, 2025 at ORL
last game
Nov 17, 2025 vs NY
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 19, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSDraymond Green · general; illnessOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right low back; strainOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral knee; patellar tendonitisOut
GSStephen Curry · right ankle; sorenessOut
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · g league - on assignmentOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIANikola Jovic · right hip; impingementOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
GS·MIA
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
115.5
points / game
124.6
114.4
points allowed / game
121.5
9−7
season record
8−6
5−0
home record
6−1
4−7
away record
2−5
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
45.7
FG%
48.8
37.4
3P%
38.4
41.6
rebounds / game
44.2
27.2
assists / game
30.3
16.8
turnovers / game
14.9
40.1
points in paint / game
57.9

Rating Trend

GS · MIA · 23 days
Golden State WarriorsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 4−4
Mar 25, 2025at MIAMIA 112 − 86
Jan 7, 2025at GSMIA 114 − 98
Mar 26, 2024at MIAGS 113 − 92
Dec 28, 2023at GSMIA 114 − 102
Nov 1, 2022at MIAMIA 116 − 109
Oct 27, 2022at GSGS 123 − 110
Mar 23, 2022at MIAGS 118 − 104
Jan 3, 2022at GSGS 115 − 108

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 18, 2025at ORL113 − 121L
Nov 16, 2025at NO124 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W
Nov 5, 2025at DEN112 − 122L
Nov 3, 2025at LAC120 − 119W
Nov 2, 2025at LAL120 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025at SA101 − 107L