bayesRatings

Knicks at Heat

NBA · Monday, Nov 17 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final NY 113 – MIA 115
← NBA / Nov 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY20313131113
MIA25302832115
Team box
NY·MIA
43-94
field goals
45-101
9-36
3-pointers
14-35
18-24
free throws
11-13
48
rebounds
40
23
assists
29
17
turnovers
14
64
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Miles McBrideNY392540
Mikal BridgesNY392334
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3322152
Norman PowellMIA321913
Davion MitchellMIA331835
Kel'el WareMIA3116141

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +10
NY +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 10 · NY 6lead changes: 21

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 54%, MIA 46% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
NY by 0.5
Expected score
NY 111.8 – 111.3 MIA
Expected total
223.1
KnicksThe matchupHeat
−118Our fair odds+118
111.8Expected points111.3
+0.45Power rating+0.02
122.1Points / game125.3
115.2Allowed / game122.2
45.8FG%49.1
38.33P%38.2
46.8Rebounds / game44.5
8−4Season record7−6
6−4Last 105−5
Jalen Brunson · OG AnunobyOutBam Adebayo · Kasparas Jakucionis
Myron Gardner · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · MIA chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−11854%————
MIAMiami Heat+11846%————
SpreadNY by 0.5
NYNew York Knicks−0.5our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.1
Over223.1our total————
Under223.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 0.5 expected
New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: <1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 1%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 2%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%
← NY wins byMIA wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more41%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more28%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.1 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GLandry Shametstarted
GMiles McBridestarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
CMitchell Robinsonstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·MIA
Nov 14, 2025 vs MIA
last game
Nov 14, 2025 at NY
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 16, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYJalen Brunson · right ankle; sprainedOut
NYOG Anunoby · left hamstring; strainedOut
Miami Heat
MIABam Adebayo · left big toe; sprainOut
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · g league - on assignmentOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
NY·MIA
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
122.1
points / game
125.3
115.2
points allowed / game
122.2
8−4
season record
7−6
8−1
home record
5−1
0−3
away record
2−5
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
45.8
FG%
49.1
38.3
3P%
38.2
46.8
rebounds / game
44.5
27.7
assists / game
30.4
13.6
turnovers / game
15.0
46.0
points in paint / game
58.0

Rating Trend

NY · MIA · 21 days
New York KnicksMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Nov 14, 2025at NYNY 140 − 132
Oct 26, 2025at MIAMIA 115 − 107
Mar 17, 2025at NYNY 116 − 95
Mar 2, 2025at MIANY 116 − 112
Oct 30, 2024at MIANY 116 − 107
Apr 2, 2024at MIAMIA 109 − 99
Jan 27, 2024at NYNY 125 − 109
Nov 24, 2023at NYNY 100 − 98
May 12, 2023at MIAMIA 96 − 92post
May 10, 2023at NYNY 112 − 103post

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 14, 2025vs MIA140 − 132W
Nov 12, 2025vs ORL107 − 124L
Nov 11, 2025vs MEM133 − 120W
Nov 9, 2025vs BKN134 − 98W
Nov 5, 2025vs MIN137 − 114W
Nov 3, 2025vs WSH119 − 102W
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI128 − 116W
Oct 31, 2025at CHI125 − 135L
Oct 28, 2025at MIL111 − 121L
Oct 26, 2025at MIA107 − 115L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W
Nov 5, 2025at DEN112 − 122L
Nov 3, 2025at LAC120 − 119W
Nov 2, 2025at LAL120 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025at SA101 − 107L
Oct 28, 2025vs CHA144 − 117W