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Trail Blazers at Warriors

NBA · Friday, Nov 21 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final POR 127 – GS 123
← NBA / Nov 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR35302933127
GS28442526123
Team box
POR·GS
42-88
field goals
40-83
16-45
3-pointers
17-43
27-32
free throws
26-30
52
rebounds
32
31
assists
29
21
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS343824
Deni AvdijaPOR4026613
Caleb LovePOR382675
Donovan ClinganPOR2722104
Jimmy Butler IIIGS342085
Toumani CamaraPOR342071

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +11
POR +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 11 · POR 9lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 30%, GS 70% · Updated Nov 21, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 7.3
Expected score
GS 116.5 – 109.1 POR
Expected total
225.6
Trail BlazersThe matchupWarriors
+231Our fair odds−231
109.1Expected points116.5
−0.20Power rating+0.39
120.7Points / game114.4
122.5Allowed / game114.2
45.1FG%45.1
32.53P%36.8
45.0Rebounds / game42.8
6−9Season record9−8
3−7Last 105−5
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jrue Holiday · Matisse Thybulle
Scoot HendersonOutDe'Anthony Melton · Jonathan Kuminga

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · GS chance
Our model fair30.2%69.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+23130%————
GSGolden State Warriors−23170%————
SpreadGS by 7.3
PORPortland Trail Blazers+7.3our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.6
Over225.6our total————
Under225.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 7.3 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 50 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%
← POR wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more60%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more44%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GSidy Cissokostarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·GS
Nov 19, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Nov 19, 2025 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 21, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · right calf; strainOut
PORRobert Williams III · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
PORJerami Grant · illness; .Probable
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral knee; patellar tendonitisOut
GSBuddy Hield · general; illnessProbable
GSDraymond Green · general; illnessProbable
GSJimmy Butler III · right low back; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
POR·GS
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
120.7
points / game
114.4
122.5
points allowed / game
114.2
6−9
season record
9−8
3−4
home record
5−0
3−5
away record
4−8
L4
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
45.1
FG%
45.1
32.5
3P%
36.8
45.0
rebounds / game
42.8
25.5
assists / game
27.1
16.5
turnovers / game
17.1
54.5
points in paint / game
40.1

Rating Trend

POR · GS · 25 days
Portland Trail BlazersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 9−1
Oct 24, 2025at PORPOR 139 − 119
Apr 11, 2025at PORGS 103 − 86
Mar 10, 2025at GSGS 130 − 120
Oct 23, 2024at PORGS 140 − 104
Apr 11, 2024at PORGS 100 − 92
Dec 23, 2023at GSGS 126 − 106
Dec 17, 2023at PORGS 118 − 114
Dec 6, 2023at GSGS 110 − 106
Apr 9, 2023at PORGS 157 − 101
Feb 28, 2023at GSGS 123 − 105

POR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Nov 19, 2025vs CHI121 − 122L
Nov 18, 2025vs PHX110 − 127L
Nov 16, 2025at DAL133 − 138L
Nov 14, 2025at HOU116 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025at NO125 − 117W
Nov 10, 2025at ORL112 − 115L
Nov 8, 2025at MIA131 − 136L
Nov 5, 2025vs OKC121 − 119W
Nov 3, 2025vs LAL115 − 123L
Oct 31, 2025vs DEN109 − 107W

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 19, 2025at MIA96 − 110L
Nov 18, 2025at ORL113 − 121L
Nov 16, 2025at NO124 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W